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EVCM: Share Repurchases Will Likely Fail To Offset Weakening Revenue Outlook

Regulatory Pressures And Cyber Risks Will Erode Enduring Viability

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EVCM
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 04 Sep 2025

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 5.88%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
11.2%
7D
34.4%

Analysts have nudged their price target on EverCommerce higher to reflect a modest uptick in estimated fair value by approximately $0.50 per share, along with improved profit margin expectations and a more attractive forward P/E outlook, despite slightly softer revenue growth assumptions.

What's in the News

  • EverCommerce issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue between $148 million and $152 million, signaling steady near term growth expectations (company guidance).
  • The company also provided full year 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $584 million to $592 million, framing management’s outlook for continued top line expansion (company guidance).
  • Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, EverCommerce repurchased 2,598,719 shares, or 1.43% of shares outstanding, for $28.84 million. This completed a total of 23,281,804 shares bought back for $227.73 million under its 2022 authorization (company filing).
  • On November 4, 2025, EverCommerce increased its equity repurchase authorization by $50 million to a total of $300 million, underscoring an ongoing commitment to shareholder returns (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from 8.5 to 9.0, reflecting a modest upward revision in long term intrinsic value assumptions.
  • The Discount Rate has edged down marginally, from approximately 9.19 percent to 9.16 percent, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile in the valuation model.
  • The Revenue Growth Outlook has softened modestly, with the long term growth rate trimmed from around negative 3.53 percent to negative 3.69 percent, indicating slightly more cautious top line expectations.
  • The Net Profit Margin has increased significantly, improving from roughly 7.27 percent to 12.04 percent, signaling a meaningfully more optimistic view on long term profitability.
  • The Future P/E has fallen markedly, from about 41.5 times to 25.3 times, suggesting a more attractive forward earnings multiple in the updated valuation.

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