Update shared on 08 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 9.25%Analysts have reduced their price target for Commvault Systems from $217 to $167. They cite investor concerns around shorter contract durations and a lower margin outlook following the company's recent earnings report.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst feedback following Commvault Systems’ recent earnings has provided a balanced view of the company’s prospects. The stock's price target was lowered in response to several operational and financial factors highlighted in the latest quarterly results.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to an overall positive quarter, with several growth indicators demonstrating the company's continued relevance in the data protection industry.
- Investors observe Commvault’s ability to maintain sector performance ratings, which indicates a level of confidence in its resilience within a challenging market.
- Operational execution remains a strength, as the company manages to navigate near-term issues while upholding a stable outlook.
- Shorter-term contract durations have raised concerns about the stability and predictability of future revenue streams.
- A lower margin outlook is now a key focus, signaling potential challenges to profitability in the near future.
- Valuation has been revised downward due to the perceived headwinds, which has prompted a more cautious stance from some market participants.
What's in the News
- RBC Capital lowered its price target on Commvault Systems from $217 to $167 and maintained a Sector Perform rating. The firm cited concerns about shorter contract durations and a lower margin outlook following a Q2 earnings miss (RBC Capital).
- Commvault announced a new conversational interface powered by its Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, allowing enterprises to manage cyber resilience tasks through AI assistants like ChatGPT Enterprise and Claude.
- Lumen Technologies and Commvault integrated their platforms to strengthen enterprise cyber resilience. This partnership is highlighted by Lumen's $3.5 million annual savings and improved operational efficiency from adopting Commvault solutions.
- Commvault introduced Data Rooms, a secure environment enabling enterprises to connect backup data to AI platforms and leverage governed, AI-ready datasets while maintaining compliance and security.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $214.56 to $194.70, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the company's intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.41% to 8.92%, indicating higher perceived risk in future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth expectations have been lowered from 12.34% to 11.94%, signaling modestly reduced growth projections.
- Net Profit Margin has fallen significantly from 13.34% to 8.98%, suggesting analysts are anticipating profitability headwinds.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 63.1x to 82.0x, which points to a higher valuation relative to expected earnings, even as profitability declines.
Disclaimer
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