Cellebrite DI’s consensus price target was modestly raised to $23.14 as analysts anticipate near-term revenue softness due to U.S. federal budget constraints and delayed deal timing, while seeing future upside from eventual deal catch-up and FedRAMP progress.
Analyst Commentary
- Slower-moving Q1 deals in Europe were completed in Q2, but persistent softness in U.S. federal deals is expected to continue until at least October, impacting near-term revenue.
- Bullish analysts note that ongoing federal government budget constraints are causing revenue headwinds, leading to a downward revision in 2025 revenue estimates.
- Q2 financial results and second-half 2025 guidance came in below market expectations due to lasting impacts from DOGE efficiency measures and customer budget pauses.
- Analysts highlight that delays in deal timing, rather than demand deterioration, are responsible for the subdued outlook, suggesting potential for revenue catch-up later.
- Progress toward FedRAMP High ATO status, anticipated by the first half of 2026, is viewed as a future catalyst for increased U.S. federal cloud growth.
What's in the News
- Cellebrite DI issued Q3 2025 guidance of $121–$126 million in revenue and ARR of $435–$445 million; full year 2025 revenue expected at $465–$475 million and ARR at $460–$475 million.
- Thomas E. Hogan appointed CEO, having previously served as interim CEO and executive chairman; Hogan brings over 40 years of technology and software leadership experience.
- David Barter appointed CFO, succeeding Dana Gerner; Barter has extensive technology sector CFO experience, including roles at New Relic, C3.ai, and Model N, and expertise in scaling global software businesses.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Cellebrite DI
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $22.57 to $23.14.
- The Future P/E for Cellebrite DI has risen slightly from 71.00x to 72.93x.
- The Discount Rate for Cellebrite DI remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 10.67% to 10.74%.
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