AVPT: Expanding Data Protection Platform Will Drive Future Market Share Gains

Narrative Update on AvePoint

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on AvePoint to approximately $19.19 per share, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s ability to sustain around 20% annual recurring revenue growth and margin expansion as it capitalizes on the strong demand in the data protection market.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that AvePoint is entering a favorable phase of growth, supported by a robust positioning in the data protection market and an expanding product footprint that reaches beyond traditional backup solutions.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts note that AvePoint is well positioned in a fast growing data protection market, which supports the view that it can continue to gain share over the medium term.
• The company platform extends beyond standard backup and recovery into broader data management and governance capabilities, which is seen as a key driver of higher win rates and larger deal sizes.
• Expectations for sustained annual recurring revenue growth near 20 percent, combined with margin expansion, underpin the current upside to valuation targets.
• Recent Buy initiations reinforce the view that AvePoint has a clear execution roadmap, with operating leverage from scale likely to improve profitability over time.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that the current valuation assumes AvePoint will maintain high teens to low twenties growth, leaving limited room for execution missteps or slower demand trends.
• Competition in the data protection and governance space is intensifying, which could pressure pricing or lengthen sales cycles if AvePoint fails to consistently differentiate its platform.
• Margin expansion expectations rely on disciplined cost control and efficient go to market investments, creating downside risk if spending runs ahead of revenue growth.
• The market is still in the early stages of fully appreciating AvePoint broader platform, and any delays in product adoption could weigh on near term sentiment and price targets.

What's in the News

• Launched AvePoint AgentPulse Command Center, an AI agent registry that enhances security, risk management, and cost control for agentic AI within the AvePoint Confidence Platform, now in private preview (Key Developments).
• Introduced expanded multi SaaS data protection, Copilot Studio agent visibility, and a new Operational Efficiency Command Center in the AvePoint Confidence Platform to improve security, compliance, and governance insights across more applications and clouds (Key Developments).
• Raised full year 2025 revenue guidance to $414.8 million to $416.8 million, implying 25.5% to 26.1% year over year growth, with constant currency growth expected at 23.5% to 24.1% (Key Developments).
• Issued Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $110 million to $112 million, representing 23% to 26% reported growth and 20% to 23% constant currency growth (Key Developments).
• Completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back a total of 15,770,738 shares, or 8.46% of shares outstanding, for $119.27 million under the program announced in March 2022 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $19.19 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 8.40% to 8.48%, reflecting a modest increase in the assumed cost of capital or risk profile.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 21.56% expected annual growth, signaling consistent top line assumptions.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially stable at roughly 13.44%, indicating no material change in long term profitability expectations.
• Future P/E: Increased marginally from about 67.6x to 67.8x, suggesting a slightly higher multiple applied to forward earnings.