APP: Share Repurchases And Index Additions Will Support Future Measured Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on AppLovin by about 9 dollars to roughly 737 dollars per share, citing slightly stronger long term revenue growth assumptions and a modest uptick in expected valuation multiples, despite a marginally lower projected profit margin.

What's in the News

• AppLovin completed a major share repurchase tranche, buying back 1,187,000 shares in the third quarter of 2025. This brought total repurchases under the February 2022 authorization to 76,639,556 shares, or 21.42 percent of shares outstanding, for about 4.18 billion dollars (company filing).
• The company increased its equity buyback authorization by 3.2 billion dollars in October 2025, lifting the total program size to approximately 7.94 billion dollars (company announcement).
• AppLovin issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance, projecting revenue between 1.57 billion and 1.6 billion dollars (earnings guidance).
• AppLovin was added to the S&P Global 1200 and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, which may enhance its visibility and potential ownership among global and U.S. equity index investors (index provider).
• The stock was removed from the Russell Small Cap Comp Growth Index as the company graduated into larger cap benchmarks (index provider).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has risen slightly from about 728 dollars and 25 cents to roughly 737 dollars and 21 cents per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
• The discount rate has edged down very slightly from about 8.47 percent to approximately 8.47 percent, implying a nearly unchanged cost of capital assumption.
• Revenue growth has increased marginally from roughly 24.62 percent to about 24.70 percent, indicating a slightly stronger long term growth outlook.
• Net profit margin has ticked down slightly from about 63.96 percent to roughly 63.91 percent, pointing to a small reduction in long run profitability assumptions.
• The future P/E multiple has risen slightly from about 39.52 times to roughly 39.97 times, suggesting a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.