TJX Strong Q3 Execution Will Drive Market Share Gains Ahead

TJX Companies fair value estimate has been raised from $164 to $181, as analysts point to strong Q3 results, raised long term guidance, resilient value positioning across categories, and continued market share and EPS growth potential supported by the off price sector backdrop.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts broadly highlight TJX's strong Q3 performance, improved long term guidance, and durable value proposition as key drivers behind a wave of upward price target revisions. The consensus view is that the company is executing well across segments while positioning itself to capture incremental market share in the off price space.

Several firms have nudged targets higher across a range from the mid $140s to the high $170s, converging around the view that the current valuation can be supported by continued comparable sales strength, gross margin expansion, and sustained EPS outperformance versus prior expectations.

The tone of research commentary also underscores that TJX's category breadth and international footprint, including planned market entries, provide a multi year runway for growth, even against a dynamic macro backdrop.

Bullish Takeaways

• Multiple bullish analysts have raised price targets in response to strong Q3 results and raised multi year guidance, reinforcing confidence that current valuation multiples are underpinned by improving earnings power.
• Commentary points to TJX's ability to drive traffic and comparable sales while executing targeted pricing actions, supporting both revenue growth and margin resilience, which in turn supports higher fair value estimates.
• Off price sector tailwinds and an attractive buying environment are seen as structural advantages that enable TJX to gain market share from traditional department store peers and sustain EPS growth.
• Over the longer term, bullish analysts emphasize the incremental growth potential from newer banners and international expansion plans, viewing these as catalysts for an above market EPS compound annual growth rate and further upside to valuation.

What's in the News

• TJ Maxx launches the Maxxinista Express, a double decker bus tour bringing superfans on holiday themed shopping road trips across Los Angeles, Dallas, and Miami. The experience features store hopping, contests, and social media friendly photo moments (company product announcement).
• The company reports that between August 3, 2025 and November 1, 2025, it repurchased over 4.23 million shares for $593.6 million, completing a tranche totaling 4.84 million shares for $669.74 million under its February 26, 2025 buyback authorization (company buyback update).
• TJX raises its full year Fiscal 2026 outlook. It now expects consolidated comparable sales up 4%, pretax profit margin of 11.6%, and diluted EPS of $4.63 to $4.66 on sales of $59.7 billion to $59.9 billion (company guidance).
• For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026, TJX reiterates guidance for consolidated comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%, pretax profit margin of 11.7% to 11.8%, and diluted EPS of $1.33 to $1.36 (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has risen from $164 to $181, reflecting a higher assessed intrinsic value for TJX shares.
• The discount rate has increased slightly from 8.30% to approximately 8.61%, indicating a modestly higher required return in the valuation model.
• The revenue growth assumption has edged down from about 7.60% to approximately 7.26%, suggesting slightly more conservative top line expectations.
• The net profit margin outlook has improved from roughly 9.30% to about 9.46%, pointing to a modestly more optimistic view on profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has moved higher from about 34.1x to approximately 36.0x, implying a somewhat richer earnings multiple applied in the updated valuation.