TJX: Momentum From Q3 Gains And Market Share Advances Will Support Outlook

The fair value estimate for TJX Companies has been raised by analysts from approximately $151.84 to $159.16 per share. This adjustment reflects robust Q3 performance, raised guidance, and ongoing strength across key business segments.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts have responded positively to TJX Companies’ latest results, citing recent price target increases and reiterating strong outlooks across several metrics. Many believe the company’s robust Q3 performance and raised guidance signal continued momentum as it executes on its strategic priorities and expands internationally.

• Multiple analysts raised their price targets for TJX following strong Q3 earnings and improved guidance. This indicates confidence in the company’s continued growth and efficient execution.
• TJX’s consistent market share gains, including expansion plans such as entering Spain with its TK Maxx banner, are viewed as key drivers for long-term growth and valuation upside.
• The company’s strong portfolio of brands and ability to adjust pricing across nearly all categories have allowed it to maintain value proposition scores, supporting customer loyalty in a dynamic retail environment.
• Analysts cite broad-based strength across segments, demographics, and regions, with positive trends in revenue and gross margin performance.

• Some analysts remain cautious on TJX’s current valuation and view it as a potential headwind, even as operational performance remains solid.
• There are concerns about whether the strong pace of comparable sales and earnings growth can be sustained amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
• Ongoing tariff impacts and competitive pressures from both department stores and other off-price retailers might challenge margin expansion going forward.

What's in the News

• TJX Companies raised its full-year Fiscal 2026 guidance, now expecting consolidated comparable sales to increase by 4%. The company also set a higher pretax profit margin target of 11.6%, with a diluted earnings per share outlook raised to $4.63-$4.66, representing 9% growth over the prior year. (Company Guidance)
• The company increased its full-year consolidated sales guidance to a range of $59.7 billion to $59.9 billion. (Company Guidance)
• For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026, TJX Companies is forecasting comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%, a pretax profit margin between 11.7% and 11.8%, and diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.33 to $1.36. (Company Guidance)

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has increased from $151.84 to $159.16 per share, reflecting a moderate reassessment upward.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 8.36% to 8.41%.
• The Revenue Growth Projection is up, increasing from 5.51% to 5.71%.
• The Net Profit Margin Estimate saw a modest uptick from 9.25% to 9.34%.
• The forecast for the future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio increased from 33.1x to 35.3x.