Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 5.41%The analyst price target for TJX Companies has been raised to $149.44, reflecting strong Q2 outperformance, raised guidance, and sustained traffic and market share gains, though upside may be tempered by elevated valuation.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong Q2 performance with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations, fueled by healthy traffic growth across all banners.
- Raised full-year guidance as a result of robust execution and accelerating comps in nearly every division.
- Bullish analysts anticipate continued outperformance due to prudent management guidance, which is seen as modestly conservative relative to ongoing business strength.
- Ongoing strong momentum into Q3, but concerns remain over limited valuation upside given shares trading near all-time highs, increasing potential risk if performance falters.
- Continued market share gains versus competitors and positive sentiment from recent coverage initiations underscore confidence in TJX’s growth trajectory.
What's in the News
- TJX Companies, along with Walmart and Amazon, is gaining market share in a challenging tariff-driven environment by purchasing excess inventory from other retailers and offering attractive deals to consumers (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-22).
- TJX repurchased 3.49 million shares ($438.68 million) under its February 2024 buyback, bringing the total to 20.67 million shares ($2.5 billion), representing 1.84% of shares outstanding (Key Development, 2025-08-20).
- Under a new buyback announced in February 2025, TJX also repurchased 607,628 shares ($76.32 million), totaling 0.05% of shares outstanding (Key Development, 2025-08-20).
- For Q3 FY2026, TJX guided for comparable sales growth of 2–3%, pretax profit margin of 12.0–12.1% (down 0.2–0.3 points year-over-year), and EPS of $1.17–$1.19, a 3–4% increase versus the prior year (Key Development, 2025-08-20).
- TJX raised its FY2026 outlook, now expecting comparable sales up 3%, pretax margin of 11.4–11.5% (flat to down 0.1 point YoY), and EPS of $4.52–$4.57, a 6–7% increase over FY2025, reflecting strong Q2 results and a reduced negative FX impact (Key Development, 2025-08-20).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for TJX Companies
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $141.78 to $149.44.
- The Future P/E for TJX Companies has risen from 31.86x to 34.20x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for TJX Companies remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 5.7% per annum to 5.8% per annum.
Disclaimer
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