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M: Improving Outlook And Store Investments Will Offset Ongoing Revenue Pressures

New Partnerships And Fulfillment Upgrades Will Drive Improved Margins And Retail Performance

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AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 30 Aug 2024

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 25%
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Analysts have raised their price target on Macy's by approximately 25 percent to around $21.70 per share, citing a slightly lower perceived risk profile, moderating revenue declines, and expectations for a higher future earnings multiple despite marginally softer profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Macy's tightened its fourth quarter 2025 outlook, guiding net sales to approximately $7.35 billion to $7.5 billion (corporate guidance).
  • The company raised its full year 2025 net sales guidance to $21.475 billion to $21.625 billion, reflecting the impact of fiscal 2024 store closures and a more optimistic demand outlook (corporate guidance).
  • Macy's reported that from August 3, 2025 to December 3, 2025, it repurchased 2.8 million shares for $50 million, completing a total of 40.875 million shares bought back for $826.21 million under its February 22, 2022 authorization (buyback tranche update).
  • The retailer launched an exclusive Marvel's Spider Man inspired collection across apparel, accessories, home decor and NBA themed items, timed with the return of the Spider Man balloon in the 99th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade (product announcement).
  • Macy's opened its largest and most technologically advanced customer fulfillment and store replenishment center in China Grove, North Carolina, equipped with high performance automation and an advanced warehouse management system, and committed $250,000 to local community initiatives including an automation training lab at Rowan Cabarrus Community College (business expansion).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value has risen significantly from approximately $17.32 to $21.70 per share, reflecting a higher intrinsic value estimate.
  • The discount rate has fallen slightly from about 11.08 percent to 10.87 percent, indicating a modestly lower perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue growth has improved modestly from an expected decline of roughly 6.18 percent to a smaller decline of about 5.02 percent.
  • The net profit margin has eased slightly from approximately 3.39 percent to 3.29 percent, suggesting marginally softer profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E has increased meaningfully from about 9.0x to 10.6x, indicating expectations for a higher earnings multiple ahead.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.