Update shared on 15 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.07%Home Depot’s analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $437.81 to $433.12. Analysts cite a more challenging near-term outlook for the home improvement sector and delayed recovery expectations, balanced against some signs of improving demand.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst opinions on Home Depot reflect a mix of optimism and caution as the home improvement sector faces both headwinds and signs of stabilization. Below are the principal bullish and bearish takeaways from recent research notes:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are encouraged by improving sales trends in the summer and accelerating demand momentum. This suggests Home Depot is well-positioned if interest rates decline.
- Several price target hikes reflect confidence in Home Depot’s ability to deliver positive same-store sales, strong e-commerce growth, and broad-based category gains.
- Analysts note the company’s operational discipline, with better-than-expected gross margins and a reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2025, which is seen as bolstering valuation prospects.
- Further growth catalysts include new platform capabilities from recent acquisitions as well as management's confidence in achieving a one percent comparable sales increase in 2025.
- Bearish analysts remain wary of a stagnating or deteriorating home improvement category. This creates difficult year-over-year comparisons ahead of the holiday season.
- Reduced estimates and target price cuts reflect concerns about a weaker outlook for the second half of 2025 and a slower-than-expected recovery in demand.
- Some caution that despite early signs of demand improvement, large financed project spending remains tepid, and the timing and strength of a sector rebound remain unclear.
What's in the News
- President Donald Trump has reportedly purchased hundreds of bonds, including corporate debt from companies such as Home Depot, as part of a broader investment strategy while in office (Bloomberg).
- Home Depot reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 earnings guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 2.8 percent, a diluted earnings-per-share decline of about 3 percent, and comparable sales growth of around 1.0 percent.
- Home Depot completed the repurchase of more than 10.2 million shares, or roughly 1.02 percent of outstanding shares, for $3.34 billion under its buyback announced in August 2023. No repurchases occurred between May and August 2025.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $437.81 to $433.12, reflecting a diminished outlook.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.50 percent to 8.61 percent, which points to increased perceived risks or uncertainty.
- Revenue Growth projection is up from 3.38 percent to 3.64 percent, which indicates improved forward sales expectations.
- Net Profit Margin is essentially unchanged, moving from 9.56 percent to 9.56 percent.
- Future P/E ratio has fallen slightly from 32.10x to 31.61x, suggesting a marginally lower valuation multiple on projected earnings.
Disclaimer
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