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GPI: Future Returns Will Balance Slower Expansion With Share Repurchases

Digital And Electric Shifts Will Diminish Traditional Dealer Influence

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GPI
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 22 Jun 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.30%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-4.3%
7D
0.8%

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Group 1 Automotive from approximately $385 to $390, reflecting expectations of slightly stronger profit margins, even though revenue growth is projected to slow and the future earnings multiple is expected to be somewhat lower.

What's in the News

  • On November 11, 2025, Group 1 Automotive increased its remaining equity buyback authorization to $500 million, signaling continued confidence in its capital return strategy (Key Developments).
  • Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 185,788 shares, or 1.47% of its outstanding stock, for $82.46 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
  • Since the buyback program began on October 6, 2020, Group 1 Automotive has repurchased a total of 6,225,732 shares, representing 41.06% of its shares, for approximately $1.35 billion (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from approximately $385 to $390, reflecting a modest increase in expected intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate has increased meaningfully from about 9.99% to 11.51%, implying a higher required return and a more conservative valuation framework.
  • Revenue Growth has been revised down significantly from roughly 5.64% to 2.65%, indicating more cautious expectations for top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin has improved moderately from about 2.53% to 2.82%, suggesting modestly stronger profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E has declined from around 9.00x to 7.86x, pointing to a lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.