Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.65%The average analyst price target for Burlington Stores has been modestly lowered to $345.94 from $351.75, as analysts cite strong second-quarter performance, ongoing margin expansion, and improved revenue growth while also acknowledging challenges such as tariff pressures.
Analyst Commentary
Following the release of Burlington Stores’ second-quarter financial results, analysts across several research firms have updated their perspectives and price targets. The latest commentary reflects both confidence in the company’s operating model and awareness of ongoing risks.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts view Burlington’s off-price business model as resilient in the current retail environment, supporting continued margin expansion and growth.
- Solid second-quarter performance, including strong comparable sales and revenue growth, has led to multiple upward revisions in price targets.
- Strategic initiatives such as flexible inventory management and enhancements in merchandising and store operations are fueling optimism around long-term earnings growth and valuation potential.
- Improved guidance for fiscal 2025 and positive earnings estimate revisions signal greater confidence in Burlington’s ability to execute despite market headwinds.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about the impact of ongoing and incremental tariff pressures, which could weigh on gross margins in future quarters.
- There are concerns about sustained momentum in a potentially volatile macroeconomic environment, particularly if consumer spending trends shift.
- The current valuation, following recent upward moves, may already reflect much of the expected improvement and could limit room for further upside if external risks materialize.
What's in the News
- Burlington Stores announced unaudited impairment charges of $1.58 million for long-lived assets for the three months ended August 2, 2025 (Key Developments).
- Between May 4, 2025 and August 2, 2025, the company completed the repurchase of 102,474 shares for $25.87 million as part of the ongoing buyback program launched in November 2023 (Key Developments).
- Burlington provided updated earnings guidance, expecting total sales growth of 5% to 7% for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 and 7% to 8% for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026. Comparable store sales are anticipated to rise 0% to 2% in Q3 and 1% to 2% for the full year (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $351.75 to $345.94. This reflects a modest decrease in expected fair value.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 9.00% to 9.03%. This suggests marginally higher perceived risk in the company’s cash flow projections.
- Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged, moving narrowly from 9.09% to 9.09% for future expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Remained stable, with a minimal increase from 6.95% to 6.96%.
- Future P/E: Decreased moderately from 27.51x to 27.07x. This indicates a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.
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