TSCO: Expanded Outdoor Offerings Will Drive Future Earnings Upside

Narrative Update on Tractor Supply

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Tractor Supply modestly, from approximately 63.52 dollars to 63.74 dollars per share. They cite slightly higher expected profit margins and a marginally richer future earnings multiple, which more than offset a small trim to projected revenue growth and a higher discount rate.

What's in the News

• Cree LED filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Tractor Supply and Promier Products in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois over several portable lighting patents, potentially exposing Tractor Supply to legal and financial risk (Key Developments).
• Tractor Supply launched an expanded lineup of exclusive Field and Stream hunting gear, pet products and outdoor lifestyle apparel in stores and online, supported by new brand marketing aimed at outdoor enthusiasts (Key Developments).
• The Field and Stream expansion includes a broader range of blinds, feeders, safes, trail cameras and a dedicated pet collection, including Pack Provisions foods and treats designed for active dogs (Key Developments).
• Between June 29 and September 27, 2025, Tractor Supply repurchased about 1.27 million shares for 75.9 million dollars, completing a long running buyback program totaling roughly 10.95% of shares outstanding since 2007 (Key Developments).
• Management raised full year 2025 guidance for net sales, comparable store sales and earnings per share and issued fourth quarter 2025 comparable sales guidance of 1% to 5% to reflect its view of current operating momentum (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, from approximately 63.52 dollars to about 63.74 dollars per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
• The Discount Rate has increased slightly, from about 8.69% to roughly 8.83%, implying a marginally higher required return applied to future cash flows.
• The Revenue Growth forecast has edged down slightly, from around 7.21% to about 7.18%, indicating a minor tempering of top line expectations.
• The Net Profit Margin assumption has risen slightly, from roughly 7.63% to around 7.65%, suggesting a small improvement in anticipated profitability.
• The Future P/E multiple has increased slightly, from about 29.22x to approximately 29.38x, supporting a somewhat richer valuation on projected earnings.