Update shared on 06 Dec 2025
Analysts have nudged their price target on Shoe Carnival slightly higher to approximately $19.00 per share, reflecting modestly lower discount rate assumptions while maintaining broadly unchanged expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Shoe Carnival reaffirmed its Fiscal 2025 net sales outlook while raising the lower end of its EPS guidance to a range of $1.80 to $2.10, reflecting stronger third quarter results and faster progress on store rebanners (Corporate guidance, raised).
- For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company projected net sales between $240 million and $270 million, implying a range from down 7% to up 2% year over year, with a wider than usual range due to macro volatility, shifting consumer behavior, and weather uncertainty (Corporate guidance, new/confirmed).
- Fourth quarter 2025 EPS is expected between $0.25 and $0.30, targeting full year results toward the lower end of the annual outlook unless holiday demand and lower income consumer spending improve more than anticipated (Corporate guidance, new/confirmed).
- For Fiscal 2026, Shoe Carnival expects net sales to decline low to mid single digits in the first half before stabilizing to flat to low single digit growth in the second half as Shoe Station exceeds 51 percent of the store fleet, with EPS projected to be below Fiscal 2025 due to softer sales and rebanner investments (Corporate guidance, new/confirmed).
- The company named longtime executive W. Kerry Jackson as Chief Financial Officer effective September 28, 2025, with former CFO Patrick C. Edwards transitioning to the Senior Vice President, Treasurer role while remaining part of the finance leadership team (Executive changes, CFO).
Valuation Changes
- The fair value estimate has been maintained essentially unchanged at approximately $19.00 per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
- The discount rate has fallen slightly from about 10.39 percent to roughly 10.29 percent, modestly increasing the present value of projected cash flows.
- The revenue growth assumption remains effectively flat at around 0.23 percent, reflecting no meaningful change in top line expectations.
- The net profit margin forecast is unchanged at approximately 3.78 percent, signaling stable expectations for earnings efficiency.
- The future P/E multiple has edged down slightly from about 15.87x to 15.82x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.
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