Update shared on 31 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 1.24%O'Reilly Automotive's fair value estimate has increased from $108.78 to $110.13 per share. Analysts point to improved profit margins, a resilient consumer, and ongoing operational strengths supporting recent upward adjustments in price targets.
Analyst Commentary
Recent coverage of O'Reilly Automotive has focused on both the company's ongoing strengths and a few areas of measured caution that may affect its valuation outlook.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have raised price targets. This reflects confidence in O'Reilly's ability to deliver strong earnings growth over the next two years.
- Healthy consumer demand and continued pricing power in the same-SKU category provide further upside to same-store sales.
- The company's robust and improving supply chain is supporting top-tier parts coverage and faster delivery. This is strengthening its competitive position and market share potential.
- O'Reilly's established track record of outperformance and a bullish technical pattern since 2021 underpin expectations of continued value creation for shareholders.
Bearish Takeaways
- Despite positive sales trends, some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of consumer strength in the second half of the year.
- There are concerns that continued price inflation may encounter resistance. This could potentially impact future sales elasticity and volume gains.
- While O'Reilly is well positioned, the market recognizes the potential for modest headwinds if economic conditions or consumer sentiment weaken unexpectedly.
What's in the News
- O'Reilly Automotive updated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting comparable store sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0%. The company expects total revenue between $17.6 billion and $17.8 billion, and diluted earnings per share between $2.90 and $3.00. Operating income is expected to range from 19.2% to 19.7% of sales. (Key Developments)
- The company completed a share buyback tranche, repurchasing 4,300,000 shares for $420 million between July and September 2025. This brings total shares repurchased since 2011 to 107,857,000 for $26,850.06 million. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly, rising from $108.78 to $110.13 per share.
- The Discount Rate has edged up marginally, moving from 8.35% to 8.38%.
- The Revenue Growth Projection has decreased modestly, going from 6.23% to 6.07%.
- The Net Profit Margin has improved slightly, changing from 14.54% to 14.55%.
- The Future P/E Ratio has declined moderately, shifting from 37.01x to 36.56x.
Disclaimer
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