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Inventory Improvements And Store Expansions Will Boost Retail Presence

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AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 18 Jul 2024

Update shared on16 Sep 2025

Fair value Increased 0.55%
Previous
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$107.55
2.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
16 Sep
US$105.39
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1Y
39.5%
7D
0.3%

O’Reilly Automotive’s consensus price target saw a modest upward revision, as analysts point to strong EPS growth, consistent profitability, robust Q2 comps and margins, supply chain execution, and successful cost pass-throughs as key drivers, with the fair value estimate rising slightly from $106.95 to $107.55.


Analyst Commentary


  • Bullish analysts cite continued strong EPS growth projections (9%-10% over two years) and a consistent track record of profitability and technical outperformance.
  • Strong Q2 results, with comparable sales and gross margins exceeding expectations, reinforce confidence in market share gains and comp profile.
  • Differentiated and improving supply chain network is driving best-in-class parts coverage, delivery, and sets up for accelerated share growth.
  • Higher product costs and inflation are being successfully passed to customers, providing a comp tailwind; O’Reilly is also viewed as a tariff beneficiary.
  • SG&A expenses came in higher than anticipated, leading to more conservative forward cost expectations, but reinvestments are expected to pay off and improve setup for 2026.

What's in the News


  • Repurchased 9,404,000 shares from April to August 2025 for $857.19 million, completing total repurchase of 106,157,000 shares for $26.67 billion since 2011.
  • Updated 2025 guidance: total revenue expected at $17.5–$17.8 billion and diluted EPS at $2.85–$2.95.

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for O'Reilly Automotive

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $106.95 to $107.55.
  • The Future P/E for O'Reilly Automotive remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 36.36x to 36.53x.
  • The Discount Rate for O'Reilly Automotive remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.34% to 8.31%.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.