Update shared on29 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 4.27%Analysts raised their price target for Ollie’s Bargain Outlet to $140.07, citing accelerated store growth, strong comps, margin expansion, and incremental market share gains, though some warn that elevated valuation now largely reflects these tailwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Accelerated store growth, strong comparable sales, and effective execution are supporting share gains and positive outlooks for unit expansion.
- Q2 performance exceeded expectations with strong gross margin and EBIT margin expansion, bolstered further by consumers increasingly seeking deep value.
- Incremental sales are being captured from competitor closures, with ongoing robust deal flow and favorable closeout inventory conditions.
- Analysts highlight the potential for sustained high same-store sales growth through the second half, supporting estimates of FY25 EPS rising toward $4.00-$4.30.
- Some bearish analysts caution that despite operational strengths, the stock's valuation is elevated and much of the upside from favorable industry dynamics is now reflected in the price.
What's in the News
- Raised fiscal 2025 guidance with expected net sales of $2.631–2.644 billion and operating income of $292–298 million, up from prior outlook.
- Celebrated grand opening of 600th store, expanding into New Hampshire, the 34th state; employs over 13,000 associates.
- Opened new store in Omaha, adding 50–60 jobs per location; company employs over 12,000 associates.
- Repurchased 159,757 shares for $17.02 million, completing buyback of 6,263,670 shares (9.86%) for $424.78 million under 2019 program.
- No shares were repurchased under the program announced in March 2025 as of the most recent update.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $134.33 to $140.07.
- The Net Profit Margin for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has fallen slightly from 9.47% to 9.27%.
- The Future P/E for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 33.19x to 33.71x.
Disclaimer
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