Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.74%Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Five Below to $163.14 from $161.95, reflecting optimism about leadership changes and favorable industry trends.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research and rating changes highlight a mix of optimism and caution from Wall Street regarding Five Below's outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note that the company's merchandising strategies have improved. This could drive better-than-expected performance in the second half of the year and into 2026.
- Unit growth continues to be a key driver of both valuation and earnings potential. This supports higher price targets from several research firms.
- Recent leadership changes are viewed as positive for long-term stability. New executives bring substantial industry expertise to help guide the company's next phase of growth.
- Rising price targets, some to as high as $187, reflect optimism about Five Below's ability to execute on its growth strategies and capture opportunities in a favorable retail environment.
- Bears remain cautious, noting that recent same-store sales growth has benefited from one-time factors such as competitor store closures and external market shifts. These factors may not sustain over time.
- There is a view that it is premature to declare the management turnaround a full success, given the reliance on industry circumstances and temporary price increases.
- Some analysts express concern around the risk of execution, especially as Five Below expands rapidly and faces ongoing competition in the value retail sector.
What's in the News
- Five Below is expanding into the Pacific Northwest for the first time, with eight new stores opening in Washington and Oregon this November (Key Developments).
- The new store locations will offer a wide range of products, including toys, games, tech, home decor, and more. Most items will be priced between $1 and $5, and some extreme-value products will be priced above $5 (Key Developments).
- Daniel Sullivan has been appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective October 6, 2025, taking over from interim CFO Kenneth Bull. Sullivan brings extensive experience as a two-time public company CFO and strategic leader (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly to $163.14 from $161.95. This reflects a modest increase in fair value estimates.
- Discount Rate has edged up marginally to 8.84%, which indicates a slight adjustment in market risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth projection is nearly unchanged, rising fractionally from 10.27% to 10.28%.
- Net Profit Margin forecast is effectively stable, moving minimally from 6.36% to 6.35%.
- Future P/E multiple has increased a bit, now at 32.08x compared to 31.83x previously.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.