EBAY: Future Category Strength And AI Integrations Will Drive Share Gains

eBay's analyst price target has risen by nearly $3.40 to approximately $94.93, as analysts point to sustained improvements in profit margins and robust growth in focus categories like collectibles to support their more optimistic outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst research reveals a blend of optimism and caution regarding eBay's outlook. Updated price targets reflect the company's operational progress and prospects, while some reservations remain around the durability of growth trends and broader sector positioning.

• Several bullish analysts have significantly raised their price targets, pointing to consistent improvements in profit margins and strength in focus categories such as trading cards and collectibles. These areas have surged in popularity and delivered sustained growth.
• Product initiatives and improved consumer experience are seen as driving increased market share within focus categories. This supports a positive trajectory for mid-single-digit merchandise volume growth in the coming years.
• Artificial intelligence integrations are credited with enhancing product discovery and simplifying the listing process. These changes reinforce marketplace efficiency and competitive positioning.
• Recent quarterly data, including notable gains in gross merchandise volume and net income, have bolstered confidence in management's execution and operational discipline.

• Bearish analysts remain cautious about eBay's ability to sustain its recent gross merchandise volume growth. They highlight concerns that upside in key categories may not be predictable or linear over the longer term.
• There is skepticism regarding ongoing sector trends, with some anticipating that tougher comparable periods and more challenging external conditions could slow growth momentum into next year.
• While AI enhancements and focus category strength provide upside, apprehensions persist that eBay continues to trail behind its largest e-commerce peers in overall sector growth rates. This could limit valuation multiple expansion.
• Some choose to remain on the sidelines following a strong year-to-date performance in the stock, citing the risk that a potential slowdown in gross merchandise volume may dampen future earnings growth and pressure the stock’s valuation.

What's in the News

• eBay Inc. has added Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. as Co-Lead Underwriters for its $399.692 million Fixed-Income Offering (Key Developments).
• From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 7,117,651 shares for $624.98 million, bringing the total repurchase to 138,946,942 shares for $7,576.02 million as part of its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
• The company issued earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with expected quarterly revenue of $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion and full-year revenue of $10.97 billion to $11.03 billion. Diluted GAAP EPS is forecast at $0.96 to $1.01 for the quarter and $4.09 to $4.14 for the year (Key Developments).
• eBay launched eBay International Shipping (eIS) in Canada. This marks the first expansion of the program outside the US and allows sellers to send items globally by shipping domestically to a hub, with eBay handling international delivery and returns at no extra cost to sellers (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly, increasing from $91.55 to $94.93.
• The discount rate has risen modestly from 8.60% to 8.96%.
• Revenue growth expectations remain essentially unchanged, dipping slightly from 5.28% to 5.28%.
• The net profit margin has improved, moving up from 18.52% to 19.07%.
• The future P/E ratio has decreased from 20.52x to 19.53x.