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ARKO: Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Undervaluation Correction

Operational Improvements And Retail Momentum Will Drive Recovery And Narrow Market Discount

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ARKO
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Sep 2024

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-24.5%
7D
-1.6%

Analysts have modestly reiterated their conviction in Arko, maintaining a steady fair value estimate near 7 dollars and 33 cents per share. They continue to see stable discount rates, largely unchanged revenue growth expectations, and consistent profit margin and valuation assumptions supporting the current price target.

What's in the News

  • The board appoints seasoned retail and fuel industry executive Galagher Jeff as permanent Chief Financial Officer, effective December 1, 2025, succeeding interim CFO Jordan Mann (company filing).
  • Jeff brings multi decade leadership experience from Murphy USA, Dollar Tree, Advance Auto Parts and Walmart, signaling a focus on transformation, strategy and margin improvement (company filing).
  • Arko completes a major share repurchase program, buying back 18,044,245 shares, or roughly 15.25 percent of shares outstanding, for about 118.69 million dollars since the 2022 authorization (company filing).
  • Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, the company repurchases an additional 934,491 shares, or 0.82 percent of shares, for 4.16 million dollars as the final tranche of the buyback (company filing).
  • Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Capital Markets and Investor Relations, Jordan Mann, is named Interim CFO in October 2025 ahead of Jeff’s arrival, ensuring continuity in capital markets and investor outreach (company filing).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate remains unchanged at approximately 7 dollars and 33 cents per share, indicating no revision to the long-term intrinsic value outlook.
  • The discount rate is stable at 12.5 percent, suggesting no change in the perceived risk profile or cost of capital assumptions.
  • Revenue growth expectations are effectively unchanged, with a negligible adjustment from about negative 2.47 percent to negative 2.47 percent, reflecting a flat outlook for top-line trends.
  • The net profit margin forecast is essentially steady, with a minimal refinement from roughly 27.29 percent to 27.29 percent, indicating no material shift in profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E multiple remains unchanged at about 51.76 times, signaling consistent expectations for the market valuation of Arko’s forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.