Update shared on03 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.34%Merck’s analyst price target edged up to $101.75, driven by positive sentiment around the Verona Pharma acquisition’s boost to the respiratory portfolio, ongoing digital and oncology partnerships, and stable vaccine outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts point to Merck’s $10B acquisition of Verona Pharma, seeing Verona’s Ohtu as a strategic anchor drug to expand Merck’s respiratory franchise and enhance competitiveness against major therapeutics in the space.
- Bullish analysts highlight Merck's ongoing oncology partnership with Moderna and the successful launch of enflonsia as supportive of the current outlook for both companies.
- Analysts note Merck’s commitment to Veeva Vault CRM as indicative of the company’s long-term digital transformation strategy, aligning it with a majority of top pharmaceutical peers.
- The absence of an FDA panel vote on lowering Gardasil doses is seen as a positive for Merck’s HPV vaccine franchise, maintaining current sales potential amid previously flagged dosing concerns.
- Increased interest among veterinarians in Merck’s upcoming Atopic Dermatitis JAK inhibitor is seen as a competitive threat to Zoetis, indicating growing strength in Merck’s animal health pipeline.
What's in the News
- The Trump administration is expected to announce pharmaceutical tariffs and sector-specific import restrictions within weeks, which could impact Merck and other large-cap drugmakers (Reuters, Aug 13, 2025).
- U.S. officials are negotiating with pharma companies, including Merck, to raise medicine prices abroad through "most favored nation" pricing, aiming to lower domestic drug expenses (Reuters, Aug 8, 2025).
- The White House is considering imposing a 1%-5% fee on patent holders, which would substantially increase costs for pharma companies that depend on patent protections, such as Merck (WSJ, Jul 28, 2025).
- Drug tariffs could be imposed as early as August 1, with plans for initially low rates escalating after a year; these tariffs would directly impact Merck and its pharmaceutical peers (Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2025).
- Direct U.S. support for global HIV programs has been cut, undermining a potential breakthrough year for treatments and affecting companies developing HIV drugs, including Merck (NYT, Jun 25, 2025).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Merck
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $100.41 to $101.75.
- The Future P/E for Merck remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 12.15x to 12.29x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Merck remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 4.3% per annum to 4.2% per annum.
Disclaimer
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