Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts remain bullish on Eli Lilly due to strong Phase 3 obesity data and pipeline momentum, outweighing isolated setbacks in heart failure, and have maintained the consensus price target at $888.52.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight the strong Phase 3 data for orforglipron in obesity and diabetes (ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2), demonstrating efficacy and tolerability at or above expectations, positioning Eli Lilly favorably versus oral and injectable competitors.
- The consensus view sees Eli Lilly maintaining "pole position" in the obesity market, especially as peers like Novo Nordisk have faced clinical and commercial headwinds, and weight loss drugs remain a key driver of revenue and sentiment.
- Some concern exists regarding underwhelming results from Eli Lilly's relaxin heart failure program, but analysts emphasize that negative read-through to other Eli Lilly franchises or the broader GLP-1 pipeline is limited.
- Bullish analysts note that market reactions to isolated disappointing readouts or sectorwide volatility have been “overdone,” creating buying opportunities given Eli Lilly’s sustained guidance raises and pipeline advances.
- Expansion through acquisitions (e.g., Verve Therapeutics) reflects management's aggressive strategy to build in adjacent markets (e.g., cardiovascular and gene-editing therapies), further bolstering long-term growth prospects despite regulatory or integration risks.
What's in the News
- U.S. regulators are cracking down on illegal imports of generic versions of weight loss drugs like Eli Lilly's Zepbound, reducing shipments from Chinese ingredient suppliers that previously fueled a booming gray market (Reuters, Sep 2, 2025).
- Eli Lilly adjusted its Mounjaro pricing strategy in the U.K., initially raising prices by up to 170% but subsequently offering discounts to pharmacies to limit consumer price increases (BBC & FT, Aug 14/29, 2025).
- The company partnered with China's JD Health International to distribute its obesity, diabetes, and alopecia drugs online, enhancing its footprint in China's rapidly growing pharmaceutical market (Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2025).
- Mounjaro sales have doubled in India amid strong demand; the company recently launched an injector pen in the Indian market, positioning its pricing competitively against rival Novo Nordisk (Reuters, Aug 7 & 13, 2025).
- U.S. policy changes are in flux, with experimental Medicare/Medicaid coverage for weight-loss drugs like Mounjaro planned and lawmakers urging the FDA to address knockoff drugs, while proposed pharma tariffs and regulatory reforms may impact Eli Lilly and its peers (Washington Post, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, various July-Aug 2025).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Eli Lilly
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $888.52.
- The Net Profit Margin for Eli Lilly remained effectively unchanged, at 38.15%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Eli Lilly remained effectively unchanged, at 18.7% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.