Update shared on03 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 3.85%United Therapeutics' analyst price target has climbed significantly, rising from approximately $467 to nearly $485 per share. Analysts cite robust Phase 3 results for Tyvaso in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and a strengthened outlook for future sales growth.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects a surge of analyst confidence following the robust Phase 3 results for Tyvaso in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, driving upward revisions in price targets and growth projections. Despite overwhelmingly positive sentiment, there remain a few points of caution among analysts considering future hurdles for United Therapeutics.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased price targets significantly. Some expect United Therapeutics shares to move above the $500 mark in the coming months as the outlook for Tyvaso in IPF sales matures.
- Phase 3 TETON-2 results for Tyvaso have largely de-risked the program in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. This supports expectations for a rapid approval and accelerated revenue growth.
- Positive trial outcomes support the possibility for Tyvaso to become a foundational therapy in IPF, with forecasts of multi-billion dollar sales potential by 2033.
- The data also create positive read-through for United’s pipeline and for partners, with expectations for additional royalties and cash flow streams.
- Bearish analysts point to lingering execution risks, such as the requirement for an additional TETON-1 trial readout prior to a regulatory filing. This could delay market entry.
- Modeling assumptions for peak sales in the IPF segment rely on orphan drug exclusivity. Any shifts in the regulatory or competitive environment could pose downside to estimates.
- One major investment bank has revised its price target downwards, citing caution around the timing and conclusiveness of late-stage clinical data, as well as heightened expectations now reflected in the share price.
- Some analysts remain mindful of underlying market volatility and potential competitive threats, particularly regarding patent litigation and rival therapies.
What's in the News
- Bleecker Street Research publicly took a short position against United Therapeutics, citing concerns over Tyvaso's patent expiration, pipeline weakness, and rising competition from Liquidia and Insmed (Bleecker Street Research report).
- The TETON-2 Phase 3 study for Tyvaso in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis met its primary efficacy endpoint. Tyvaso showed significant improvement in lung function compared to placebo (Company announcement).
- United Therapeutics will host a webcast to review detailed TETON-2 study results, featuring key investigators and executives, on September 28, 2025 (Company announcement).
- United Therapeutics amended its agreement with MannKind to expand a partnership to include development of an additional pipeline product. MannKind is eligible for up to $35 million in milestones plus future royalties (Company announcement).
- The company announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $1 billion in buybacks, effective through March 31, 2026 (Company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value) has risen slightly from $466.82 to $484.77 per share.
- Revenue Growth expectations increased, moving from an annual rate of 6.74% to 7.27%.
- Net Profit Margin is nearly unchanged, edging down from 40.19% to 40.01%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased modestly from 17.75x to 18.25x. This reflects an uptick in valuation expectations.
- Discount Rate remains stable at 6.78%.
Disclaimer
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