TGTX: Shares Will Likely Rebound As Long Term Sales Milestone Approaches

Analysts have modestly raised their blended price target for TG Therapeutics, reflecting increased confidence in multi year Briumvi growth and updated post earnings models that point to a path toward more than $1 billion in annual sales.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street updates reflect a predominantly constructive stance on TG Therapeutics, with upwardly revised price targets and reinforced positive ratings following the latest earnings update.

Bullish analysts emphasize that the refreshed valuation frameworks increasingly embed confidence in the trajectory of Briumvi adoption and the company’s ability to scale to blockbuster status over the medium term.

Bullish Takeaways

• Upward price target revisions, including the increase to $49 from $46 at JPMorgan and to $55 from $53 elsewhere, signal rising conviction that current share levels underappreciate long term Briumvi growth and margin expansion potential.
• Post earnings model updates highlight a clearer path to more than $1 billion in annual Briumvi sales in the coming years, supporting a thesis of sustained top line acceleration and operating leverage.
• Bullish analysts view the recent post earnings share pullback as a dislocation rather than a fundamental reset, arguing that it offers an attractive entry point relative to revised intrinsic value estimates.
• Multi year U.S. sales growth expectations for Briumvi reinforce the view that TG Therapeutics can transition from a single product risk narrative to a durable commercial growth story, warranting premium multiples versus historical trading ranges.

Bearish Takeaways

• Despite higher targets, some cautious analysts note that execution risk remains elevated, with the valuation increasingly dependent on sustained prescription growth and flawless commercial execution in a competitive MS landscape.
• There is concern that the market may already be pricing in a substantial portion of the Briumvi ramp, leaving less room for upside if adoption curves normalize or payer dynamics become more restrictive.
• Post earnings volatility underscores sensitivity to any signs of slowing momentum, with skeptics warning that misses versus newly raised expectations could trigger outsized multiple compression.
• Longer term, a concentrated reliance on Briumvi exposes the investment case to product specific risks, including potential label, safety, or competitive developments that could challenge the current growth and valuation narrative.

What's in the News

• TG Therapeutics raised its 2025 total global revenue target to approximately $600 million, up from prior guidance of $585 million, reflecting stronger than expected Briumvi momentum (Corporate Guidance: Raised).
• Enrollment completed in the randomized cohort of the Phase 3 ENHANCE trial evaluating a consolidated Day 1 and Day 15 dosing schedule for IV Briumvi in relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, a key step toward a potentially more convenient dosing regimen (Product-Related Announcements).
• New six year data from the ULTIMATE I and II Phase 3 trials presented at ECTRIMS 2025 showed consistent long term outcomes for Briumvi, with no association between decreased immunoglobulin levels and serious infections after six years of treatment (Product-Related Announcements).
• TG Therapeutics reported that a single 600 mg Day 1 Briumvi infusion, given over one to four hours, was well tolerated, with the four hour regimen showing the lowest infusion related reaction rate and now being studied in a label enabling trial versus standard dosing (Product-Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $44.29 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic value estimate despite updated modeling inputs.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 7.09 percent to 7.11 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return in the valuation framework.
• Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at roughly 37.82 percent, suggesting the long term top line outlook remains consistent with prior expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Stable at about 32.93 percent, indicating no material revision to medium term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Increased marginally from 17.68x to 17.69x, pointing to a negligible change in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.