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SUPN: Upgrades And Revenue Outlook Will Shape Performance Amid Execution Risk

Update shared on 05 Nov 2025

Fair value Increased 7.49%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
25.7%
7D
-16.5%

Analysts have raised their price target for Supernus Pharmaceuticals by over $4 to approximately $59.33 per share. This change is due to higher future revenue growth expectations and an improved outlook for key therapies.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts have updated their perspectives on Supernus Pharmaceuticals, reflecting increased confidence in the company's growth prospects and valuation. The following summarizes the optimistic and cautious takeaways from recent research notes:

Bullish Takeaways
  • Price targets have been raised significantly, following positive adjustments to revenue forecasts.
  • Analysts are accounting for a faster-than-expected uptake for ONAPGO, which raises its perceived peak sales potential.
  • Upgrades in ratings signal a broadening optimism for Supernus's ability to execute on its pipeline and market strategy.
  • Some analysts note there is potential for additional upside, with current estimates for ONAPGO possibly being conservative given recent performance trends.
Bearish Takeaways
  • Despite optimism, some analysts point out the possibility that sales acceleration could slow if initial enthusiasm for new therapies decreases.
  • There is execution risk associated with expanding market share and maintaining revenue momentum for new and existing therapies.
  • Upside from current estimates depends on continued adoption of ONAPGO and the company's ability to achieve its commercial targets.

What's in the News

  • The company has raised its earnings guidance for 2025, with expected total revenues now between $685 million and $705 million. This is up from the previous range of $670 million to $700 million (Key Developments).
  • The updated revenue forecast includes approximately $75 million to $85 million from Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR (Key Developments).
  • The anticipated operating loss has been lowered to a range of $65 million to $75 million, an improvement from prior estimates of $70 million to $80 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $55.20 to $59.33 per share. This reflects a more optimistic fair value assessment.
  • Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.78 percent, indicating no shift in perceived risk factors.
  • Revenue Growth has been revised upward slightly from 15.94 percent to 16.45 percent, which shows modestly more robust growth expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin has decreased marginally from 19.94 percent to 19.68 percent, indicating slightly lower projected profitability.
  • Future P/E has increased from 18.86x to 20.27x, suggesting a higher valuation relative to future earnings.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.