Update shared on17 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 14%Analysts have markedly reduced AVITA Medical’s price target from $9.60 to $8.26 amid lowered guidance, recurring earnings misses, and ongoing reimbursement headwinds that are pressuring demand and raising solvency concerns despite management’s optimism for a second-half recovery.
Analyst Commentary
- Materially lowered guidance has prompted a significant reset of expectations, but management maintains confidence in a second half recovery.
- Bullish analysts view the revised outlook as a prudent reset rather than a sign of structural impairment.
- Repeated quarterly earnings misses and multiple guidance cuts over the past five quarters have heightened investor concerns.
- Persistent reimbursement challenges via Medicare Administrative Contractors have hindered payments for usage, leading providers to limit adoption and impacting demand for Recell.
- Bearish analysts believe Avita faces significant downside risk due to ongoing demand erosion and the need to address solvency concerns.
What's in the News
- Completed a follow-on equity offering, raising AUD 22.7 million via 17.2 million CHESS Depositary Interests at AUD 1.32 each, representing a discount per security.
- Revised full-year 2025 revenue guidance downward to $76–81 million from prior $100–106 million, citing slower sales and ongoing reimbursement issues; new guidance still implies 19–27% growth over 2024.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for AVITA Medical
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $9.60 to $8.26.
- The Future P/E for AVITA Medical has significantly fallen from 4.75x to 3.52x.
- The Discount Rate for AVITA Medical has fallen slightly from 7.19% to 7.03%.
Disclaimer
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