Update shared on 11 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.81%MannKind's fair value estimate has been revised down slightly to $10.06 per share from $10.57. Analysts are factoring in stronger revenue growth driven by TYVASO DPI royalties and the accretive acquisition of scPharmaceuticals, along with a modest change in profitability and updated discount rates.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects differing perspectives on MannKind's valuation drivers and risks in the wake of positive clinical developments and the scPharmaceuticals acquisition.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are revising price targets upward, citing higher projected royalty revenues from TYVASO DPI following strong Phase 3 results and the anticipated role of TYVASO as a core therapy in IPF.
- The acquisition of scPharmaceuticals is viewed as accretive and adds a high-growth commercial asset that enhances MannKind's revenue diversification and total addressable market.
- Additional positive clinical data has been seen as reducing uncertainties around future cash flows, with some analysts indicating it removes a major overhang on the stock and supports a valuation re-rating.
- Deal terms for the scPharmaceuticals acquisition are considered favorable and offer attractive upside with a mix of upfront payment and contingent value rights tied to future milestones.
- Some bearish analysts are cautious about the limited competitive bidding for scPharmaceuticals and note that the acquisition terms represent a definitive agreement with no expectation of further offers.
- There are modest concerns regarding execution risk as MannKind integrates a new asset and seeks to realize anticipated synergies and cash flow improvements.
- Potential dilution from acquisition-related funding or integration costs may temper immediate upside to profitability and affect near-term valuation.
What's in the News
- H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on MannKind, highlighting the value and diversification brought by the acquisition of scPharmaceuticals and noting the purchase price was described as "very reasonable" (H.C. Wainwright).
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration accepted MannKind's supplemental biologics license application for Afrezza Inhalation Powder in children and adolescents with diabetes, with a PDUFA target action date set for May 29, 2026. The submission is based on positive Phase 3 results from the INHALE-1 study in patients aged 4 to 17.
- MannKind discontinued its Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating nebulized inhalation suspension of clofazimine (MNKD-101) for refractory nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease following a futility analysis, though no safety issues were reported.
- MannKind amended its collaboration agreement with United Therapeutics, expanding the partnership to cover an additional development product, for which MannKind will receive a $5 million upfront payment, potential milestone payments, and royalties on future sales.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from $10.57 to $10.06 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen marginally, moving from 6.82% to 7.20%.
- Revenue Growth forecast has increased from 13.18% to 17.33%.
- Net Profit Margin expectation has declined modestly, from 16.09% to 15.80%.
- Future P/E Ratio has fallen from 68.6x to 58.2x.
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