Update shared on 24 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 6.54%Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Medpace Holdings to $456 from $428 per share. This change reflects updated optimism based on recent price target adjustments and expectations for stabilization in contract research organization demand trends.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects a range of perspectives on Medpace Holdings, focusing on industry trends, the demand environment, and financial outlook. The following summarizes key bullish and bearish takeaways from the latest analyst notes.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised price targets on Medpace, citing improved bookings across the contract research organization sector and signs of stabilizing demand.
- Growth in healthcare utilization, while decelerating, suggests cost trends are stabilizing. This is viewed positively for managed care companies and service providers like Medpace.
- There is cautious optimism that contract research organization demand has reached a bottom. This could set the stage for recovery in future quarters.
- Stronger biotech funding over the past quarter points to supportive conditions for Medpace's core client base and may potentially benefit revenue growth and execution.
- Bearish analysts maintain a cautious stance and have lowered price targets due to lingering concerns about below-normal business-to-business activity persisting into 2025. This could affect 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth.
- Recent demand signals in the contract research sector remain mixed, underscoring ongoing execution risks for Medpace despite industry improvements.
- Sequential declines in hospital admissions have introduced uncertainty and raised questions about the sustainability of near-term healthcare utilization trends.
- Some projections suggest consensus estimates may not fully account for ongoing headwinds, which contributes to a less optimistic outlook on valuation.
What's in the News
- Medpace Holdings provided earnings guidance for the full year 2025, forecasting revenue between $2.48 billion and $2.53 billion. This reflects projected growth of 17.6% to 20% over 2024. GAAP net income is expected in the range of $431.0 million to $439.0 million, with diluted earnings per share forecasted from $14.60 to $14.86 (Key Developments).
- From July 1, 2025 through September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 14,649 shares for $4.5 million. This completes the repurchase of 4,498,399 shares, or 14.81% of shares outstanding, totaling $1,278.25 million under the buyback plan announced in October 2022 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Increased from $428 to $456 per share. This reflects a higher assessment of the company's intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate: Edged up marginally from 7.27% to 7.27%. This indicates a slightly higher required rate of return.
- Revenue Growth: Moderated from 11.43% to 10.80%. This suggests slightly tempered expectations for annual growth.
- Net Profit Margin: Decreased modestly from 16.81% to 16.75%. This points to a minor contraction in projected profitability.
- Future P/E: Increased from 22.39x to 23.05x. This signals higher valuation multiples being applied to expected earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.