Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 2.64%The consensus analyst price target for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals was raised from $449.57 to $461.43, primarily driven by the EU approval and expanded patent protection for Rezdiffra, which de-risks future cash flows and supports robust sales expectations in a large addressable market.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts updated their models to reflect the recent EU approval of Rezdiffra, reducing risk and subsequently lowering the discount rate applied to future cash flows.
- EU conditional approval positions Rezdiffra as a first-line therapy for noncirrhotic MASH with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis, supporting expectations for a strong early launch in Europe.
- The company is targeting approximately 370,000 EU patients, with initial commercialization efforts focused on Germany in the upcoming quarter.
- Rezdiffra recently received an expanded patent allowance, extending coverage to 2044, which is considered a “significant win” by analysts and solidifies its blockbuster revenue potential.
- Sales forecasts for Rezdiffra are robust, with expectations to surpass $1 billion in annual sales by 2026 and a total addressable market opportunity of $5 billion, underpinned by strong patent protection and regulatory approvals.
What's in the News
- European Commission granted conditional marketing authorization for Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for adults with noncirrhotic MASH and moderate to advanced liver fibrosis, making it the first and only approved therapy for MASH in the EU.
- Authorization was based on positive results from the Phase 3 MAESTRO-NASH trial, which showed significant improvements in fibrosis reduction, MASH resolution, liver stiffness, liver fat, liver enzymes, and quality of life.
- Madrigal secured a $500 million senior secured credit facility, with $350 million received in the first tranche and $150 million expected by the end of 2027; Blue Owl Capital is a new lender to the company.
- The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the EMA adopted a positive opinion recommending approval of Rezdiffra, following FDA accelerated approval in March 2024 for the same indication in the U.S.
- An ongoing Phase 3 outcomes trial is evaluating Rezdiffra in treating compensated MASH cirrhosis.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $449.57 to $461.43.
- The Net Profit Margin for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has fallen slightly from 34.48% to 33.32%.
- The Future P/E for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has risen slightly from 15.23x to 15.70x.
Disclaimer
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