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LSTA: Upcoming Cancer Trial Milestones Will Drive Strong Upside Potential

Update shared on 09 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-22.5%
7D
2.5%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Lisata Therapeutics slightly higher to 13.00 dollars from 13.00 dollars, reflecting modest adjustments to the discount rate and long-term valuation assumptions, despite largely unchanged growth and margin expectations.

What's in the News

  • Lisata Therapeutics and Catalent entered a global product license agreement granting Catalent worldwide, non exclusive rights to use certepetide in antibody drug conjugates developed on its SMARTag platform, with Lisata eligible for over 10 million dollars in tiered milestone payments plus revenue sharing on future sales and partnerships (Key Developments)
  • Certepetide, Lisata's proprietary internalizing RGD cyclic peptide, will be evaluated by Catalent as a payload across multiple ADCs targeting difficult to treat diseases. The goal is to create a new class of targeted bioconjugate therapies while maintaining Lisata's ability to explore its use across a range of solid tumors (Key Developments)
  • Regulators have granted certepetide Fast Track and Orphan Drug Designations for pancreatic cancer in the U.S. and E.U., Orphan Drug Designation for glioma and osteosarcoma in the U.S., and Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for osteosarcoma in the U.S., underscoring its potential in high unmet need indications (Key Developments)
  • Encouraging preliminary data from the PDAC cohort of the Phase 1/2a CENDIFOX trial show certepetide combined with FOLFIRINOX based regimens may enhance treatment of pancreatic, colon, and appendiceal cancers. Detailed results are expected to be presented at the AACR Special Conference on Advances in Pancreatic Cancer Research in September 2025 in Boston (Key Developments)
  • Lisata expects to report multiple clinical and corporate milestones over the next 1.5 years and believes its current capital will fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2026. This funding period is expected to cover anticipated data readouts from ongoing and planned trials of certepetide (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: unchanged at 13.00 dollars per share, indicating no material shift in the base valuation outlook.
  • Discount Rate: risen slightly from about 6.99 percent to about 7.04 percent, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at about 83.83 percent, suggesting stable long term growth expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: effectively unchanged at about 16.03 percent, indicating no meaningful revision to long term profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E: risen marginally from about 104.6x to about 104.8x, implying a slightly higher multiple on expected future earnings.

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