IOVA: Future Lung Cancer Data Will Drive Renewed Bullish Momentum

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Iovance Biotherapeutics to reflect slightly slower projected revenue growth, a meaningfully lower long term profit margin outlook, and a higher assumed future price to earnings multiple, while leaving the estimated fair value effectively unchanged at about 8.25 dollars per share.

What's in the News

• Iovance Biotherapeutics reaffirmed its full year 2025 revenue guidance, targeting between 250 million dollars and 300 million dollars in the first full calendar year of Amtagvi sales (company guidance).
• Interim data from the registrational Phase 2 IOV-LUN-202 trial showed a 25.6% objective response rate for lifileucel monotherapy in previously treated advanced nonsquamous NSCLC without actionable mutations, based on RECIST v1.1 (company clinical update).
• Among 39 patients treated in IOV-LUN-202, Iovance reported 2 complete responses, 7 partial responses, and 1 unconfirmed partial response, with a disease control rate of 71.8% and median duration of response not yet reached after a median 25.4 month follow up (company clinical update).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate remained unchanged at approximately 8.25 dollars per share, indicating that the combined model adjustments did not materially alter the overall intrinsic value assessment.
• The discount rate increased slightly from about 7.12 percent to about 7.14 percent, reflecting a marginally higher assumed cost of capital.
• The revenue growth forecast was reduced modestly from roughly 45.6 percent to roughly 44.5 percent, signaling a slightly more conservative outlook on top-line expansion.
• The net profit margin assumption fell significantly from about 9.0 percent to about 3.6 percent, implying a meaningfully lower long-term profitability profile.
• The future P/E multiple increased substantially from around 70.9 times to around 181.3 times, suggesting a higher valuation multiple applied to lower expected earnings.