Update shared on26 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 12%Analysts have reduced Harmony Biosciences’ price target from $50.45 to $44.55, citing negative Phase 3 data for ZYN002 in fragile X syndrome and competitive risks to Wakix, though future catalysts remain, resulting in a more cautious near-term outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Negative Phase 3 data for ZYN002 in fragile X syndrome raises concerns over Harmony's near-term growth prospects, compounded by the absence of detailed management commentary.
- Bearish analysts lowered price targets due to expectations that the introduction of OX2R agonists will further erode Wakix’s market share in narcolepsy type I.
- Bullish analysts believe the upcoming Phase 3 RECONNECT trial readout in Fragile X syndrome represents a key catalyst, offering asymmetric risk-reward potential if results are positive.
- The Wakix franchise remains the primary driver for share performance, with the near-term outlook tied closely to its competitive positioning and data updates.
- Modest downward price target adjustments reflect consensus caution, balancing recent negative data against potential future catalysts within Harmony’s development pipeline.
What's in the News
- ZYN002 failed to meet the primary endpoint in its Phase 3 RECONNECT Study for Fragile X syndrome due to a high placebo response, though it remains the first synthetic, patent-protected, transdermal cannabidiol with orphan drug and FDA Fast Track designations.
- No shares were repurchased in Q2 2025; a total of 1,814,653 shares (3.1%) have been repurchased for $49.99 million under the current buyback program.
- Full year 2025 net product revenue guidance reaffirmed at $820 million to $860 million.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Harmony Biosciences Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $50.45 to $44.55.
- The Future P/E for Harmony Biosciences Holdings has fallen from 10.87x to 9.90x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Harmony Biosciences Holdings has fallen from 17.0% per annum to 15.8% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.