GILD: Extended Exclusivity And PrEP Opportunities Will Balance Ongoing Oncology And Policy Pressures

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Gilead Sciences to $130.83 per share from $129.51. They cite the extended exclusivity period for Biktarvy and improved growth prospects in the HIV market as key drivers for the upward revision.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are increasingly revising their outlook for Gilead Sciences, highlighting a series of recent developments that support higher valuation and improved growth opportunities in the HIV and broader biopharma markets.

Bullish Takeaways

• The expected loss of exclusivity for Biktarvy in the U.S. has been pushed to 2036. This provides several additional years of protected revenue and supports higher price targets for Gilead shares.
• Analysts see potential in the HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) market. They note the total addressable market could be significantly underestimated, which could accelerate top-line growth.
• Recent physician surveys indicate a strong launch for Yeztugo in HIV, prompting upward revisions to sales forecasts in the near term.
• Multiple firms now model increased growth rates for Gilead’s HIV business, reflecting improving execution and stable performance in the company’s core markets.
• The broad trend among large-cap biopharma is being viewed favorably. Gilead is positioned as a potential beneficiary from the next innovation wave and sector re-rating.

Bearish Takeaways

• While HIV remains an area of strength, oncology results have been mixed and cell therapy continues to face significant competitive pressures, potentially limiting overall earnings growth.
• Pipeline setbacks, such as the termination of a next-generation HIV asset, highlight ongoing challenges in development and could impact the long-term innovation narrative.
• Policy risks linger, particularly around U.S. drug pricing. Gilead could face higher exposure to price cuts than some of its peers and this could dampen the upside from product exclusivity extensions.
• With some analysts remaining neutral due to these risks, Gilead’s near-term share performance may lag until there is clearer indication of progress in its pipeline and in market access for new therapies.

What's in the News

• Truist raised its price target for Gilead to $145 from $127 and maintained a Buy rating following stable Q3 results and continued strength in the HIV business. The firm also noted mixed oncology outcomes and ongoing cell therapy competition (Truist).
• The U.S. administration and Gilead will collaborate with The Global Fund to provide up to 2 million people in low- and middle-income countries with an HIV prevention drug, reflecting Gilead's commitment to expanding global PrEP access (STAT).
• Gilead announced first shipments of lenacapavir, its twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, for PrEP to Eswatini and Zambia. This marks rapid progress toward long-acting HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, with plans to expand access further in 2026 (Company announcement).
• Positive topline results from the Phase 3 ARTISTRY-1 trial showed Gilead’s investigational once-daily BIC/LEN regimen was non-inferior to multi-tablet therapy for virologically suppressed adults with HIV, supporting future long-acting treatment options (Company announcement).
• Gilead's Trodelvy failed to meet the primary endpoint for progression-free survival as a first-line treatment in HR+/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer in the ASCENT-07 Phase 3 trial. However, early signs suggest a possible overall survival benefit (Company announcement).

Valuation Changes

• The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly, increasing from $129.51 to $130.83 per share.
• The discount rate edged up marginally, moving from 7.24% to 7.26%.
• The revenue growth forecast decreased modestly, shifting from 4.16% to 3.89%.
• The net profit margin improved, rising from 31.14% to 32.21%.
• The future P/E ratio forecast fell somewhat, changing from 19.18x to 18.84x.