Humana, Centene And Medicare Coverage Will Increase Screening Access

Analysts have modestly raised Exact Sciences’ price target to $64.01, citing renewed optimism from the Freenome deal and Shield V2 data as potential growth catalysts despite near-term skepticism around CRC blood-test data, resulting in only a slight upward revision to fair value.

Analyst Commentary

• Bullish analysts cite the Freenome deal and Shield V2 data as catalysts for renewed Street focus on execution, with multiple near-term revenue growth drivers, continued EBITDA margin expansion, improving cash flow, and possible estimate upside.
• Bearish analysts point to disappointment with Exact Sciences' CRC blood-based test data, triggering negative short-term sentiment despite solid core Q2 performance.
• The acquisition of access to Freenome's blood-based CRC test and pipeline is seen as a strategic move to address product gaps and regain competitive positioning, with FDA approval expected in 2026.
• Some analysts note a lack of significant change in long-term blood-based screening market dynamics, tempering expectations for rapid market share gains.
• The recent stock selloff is viewed by certain bullish analysts as overdone, given management's proactive responses and the company's underlying growth prospects.

What's in the News

• Exact Sciences launched Cancerguard™, a first-of-its-kind multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood test in the U.S., claiming detection of over 50 cancer types with high specificity (97.4%) and promising sensitivity across deadliest cancers; a major Quest Diagnostics partnership enables widespread patient access, and large-scale clinical trials aim to support payer coverage and guideline inclusion (Key Developments).
• The company expanded its partnership with Humana, making the FDA-approved Cologuard Plus™ colorectal cancer screening test available as an in-network service to Humana Medicare Advantage members nationwide, with expectations to significantly reduce false positives and unnecessary colonoscopies (Key Developments).
• The Oncodetect molecular residual disease (MRD) test for colorectal cancer received Medicare coverage for serial monitoring, enabling earlier and more personalized cancer recurrence tracking; additional Medicare coverage for other solid tumors is being pursued (Key Developments).
• Exact Sciences raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $3.13–$3.17 billion (from $3.07–$3.12 billion) and reaffirmed its 2027 long-term target of 15% compounded annual revenue growth (Key Developments).
• The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act’s provisions mandating insurer coverage for preventive cancer screenings, a decision expected to benefit companies like Exact Sciences by supporting access and reimbursement for their screening products (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for Exact Sciences

• The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $63.14 to $64.01.
• The Future P/E for Exact Sciences remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 56.49x to 57.26x.
• The Discount Rate for Exact Sciences remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.08% to 7.07%.