DVAX: Buybacks Will Support Future Upside As Pipeline Progress Strengthens Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Dynavax Technologies higher to approximately $19.25 per share. This reflects slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rates, long term revenue growth, profit margins, and forward valuation multiples, which leave their overall fair value estimate broadly unchanged.

What's in the News

• Dynavax Technologies authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of its common stock. The program is expected to be executed over roughly one year and funded from existing cash reserves (company announcement).
• The Board of Directors approved a buyback plan in October 2025, reinforcing management's capital return strategy alongside the newly detailed $100 million repurchase authorization (company announcement).
• The company reiterated 2025 earnings guidance, projecting HEPLISAV B net product revenue between $315 million and $325 million, signaling confidence in its core commercial franchise (corporate guidance).
• Dynavax reported positive topline data from Part 1 of its Phase 1/2 trial for Z-1018, a novel shingles vaccine candidate, showing favorable tolerability and strong humoral and cellular immune responses across multiple dosing regimens (clinical trial update).
• Part 2 of the Z-1018 Phase 1/2 trial has begun enrolling approximately 324 adults aged 70 and older in Australia and New Zealand, with topline immunogenicity and safety data expected in the second half of 2026 (clinical trial update).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate per Share is unchanged at approximately $19.25, indicating that revised assumptions have not materially altered the overall valuation.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 7.41 percent to roughly 7.44 percent, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• The Revenue Growth Assumption is effectively unchanged at around 15.21 percent, suggesting no meaningful revision to the long term top line outlook.
• The Net Profit Margin is effectively flat at roughly 26.10 percent, indicating stable expectations for long term profitability.
• The Future P/E Multiple has nudged slightly higher from about 17.91x to roughly 17.92x, signaling only a minimal shift in forward valuation assumptions.