Update shared on15 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 19%CareDx’s consensus price target was reduced from $27.50 to $22.20, primarily due to heightened reimbursement risk stemming from the proposed Palmetto MolDx LCD and recent share price volatility, despite operational stability and some analysts seeing undervaluation at current levels.
Analyst Commentary
- Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Palmetto MolDx draft Local Coverage Determination (LCD), which proposes to limit reimbursement for certain transplant tests.
- Recent unfavorable proposed LCD has contributed to a significant decline in share price, with the stock closing down 38.5% on one trading day.
- Bearish analysts are revising price targets downward as reimbursement risk increases, though some maintain constructive ratings on valuation grounds.
- Company’s Q2 results were roughly in line with expectations, and full-year guidance was tightened, indicating operational stability despite reimbursement headwinds.
- Bullish analysts believe shares are substantially undervalued at current levels, even if proposed reimbursement changes are finalized.
What's in the News
- CareDx completed a $50 million share repurchase, acquiring 3,031,533 shares, but conducted no additional buybacks in the most recent period.
- The company published a landmark KOAR study demonstrating the clinical utility of AlloSure dd-cfDNA for early rejection detection, risk stratification, and treatment monitoring in kidney transplant patients.
- Nathan Smith was appointed as CFO, succeeding Abhishek Jain, who will support the transition in a consulting role.
- CareDx narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance range to $367 million–$373 million.
- CareDx was dropped from multiple value and small-cap Russell indices, including the Russell 2000, 2500, 3000, Microcap, and Small Cap Value benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for CareDx
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $27.50 to $22.20.
- The Net Profit Margin for CareDx has significantly risen from 0.29% to 1.53%.
- The Future P/E for CareDx has significantly fallen from 1582.90x to 190.32x.
Disclaimer
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