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CDNA: Raised Revenue Outlook And Buyback Activity Will Support Bullish Repricing

Rising Organ Transplant Demand And AI Diagnostics Will Create Opportunity

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CDNA
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Mar 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 5.34%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-4.3%
7D
0.6%

Analysts have nudged their price target on CareDx higher from around 21.83 dollars to 23.00 dollars, citing expectations for slightly faster revenue growth and a richer future valuation multiple, despite a more conservative view on long term profit margins and discount rates.

What's in the News

  • The board amended and restated company bylaws to adopt a majority voting standard for director elections, with plurality voting only in contested elections (company bylaws filing).
  • The company raised full year 2025 revenue guidance to 372 million to 376 million dollars, up from the prior range of 367 million to 373 million dollars (company guidance).
  • The company updated fourth quarter 2025 revenue outlook to 101 million to 105 million dollars, assuming 52,000 to 54,000 tests in the period (company guidance).
  • The company completed the repurchase of 1,986,563 shares, about 3.73 percent of shares outstanding, for 25.57 million dollars under the June 2025 buyback program (company buyback update).
  • The company published new SHORE registry data showing HeartCare multimodal molecular testing improves prognostic assessment in heart transplant recipients beyond traditional biopsies (clinical study publication).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly from 21.83 dollars to 23.00 dollars per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic value assessment.
  • The discount rate has increased slightly from 6.78 percent to about 7.08 percent, implying a marginally higher required return and risk assumption.
  • Revenue growth has edged higher from roughly 12.54 percent to about 13.24 percent, indicating modestly stronger top line expectations.
  • The net profit margin has fallen significantly from about 16.06 percent to roughly 9.15 percent, signaling a more conservative view on long term profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has risen meaningfully from about 17.7x to roughly 24.4x, implying a richer valuation being applied to projected earnings.

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Disclaimer

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