AQST: Extended Patent Protection Will Drive Sustained Share Price Upside

Analysts have recently raised their price targets for Aquestive Therapeutics, with notable increases from $7 to $8 and from $9 to $12. They cite strengthened patent protection for Anaphylm and a smoother regulatory pathway as key drivers behind their more optimistic outlook.

Analyst Commentary

• Bullish analysts highlight the extension of patent protection for Anaphylm, now providing brand exclusivity through at least 2037. This is cited as a significant driver of long-term value.
• The issuance of new patents covering novel compositions of matter is viewed as materially enhancing the market potential and defensibility of Aquestive's product pipeline.
• Recent regulatory updates have improved confidence in the likelihood of Anaphylm's approval, especially given the FDA’s decision to forgo an advisory committee meeting for the NDA review.
• Strong share price reactions to regulatory milestones signal heightened investor conviction in the company’s growth prospects and operational execution.

• Some analysts express caution about the reliance on regulatory outcomes, noting that while an advisory committee was not required, potential future hurdles remain.
• There are lingering questions regarding real-world adoption and the competitive landscape for novel epinephrine delivery methods.
• Despite recent gains, execution risks persist as Aquestive moves toward commercialization, particularly in scaling manufacturing and distribution for Anaphylm.

What's in the News

• Oppenheimer raised its price target for Aquestive Therapeutics to $8 from $7 after the FDA announced that no advisory committee is needed for Anaphylm's NDA. This led to a surge in share price (+43.77%) (Oppenheimer)
• The FDA informed Aquestive Therapeutics that an advisory committee meeting is not required for Anaphylm (Key Development)
• Aquestive Therapeutics completed a follow-on equity offering, raising $85 million from the sale of 21,250,000 shares at $4 each (Key Development)
• The company entered into a $75 million note purchase and sale agreement with RTW Investments, LP to bolster funding (Key Development)
• Aquestive confirmed its 2025 full-year revenue guidance, expecting between $44 million and $50 million (Key Development)

Valuation Changes

• The discount rate has increased modestly from 6.78% to 6.96%, reflecting a slightly higher perceived risk or required return by analysts.
• Revenue growth projections have risen notably from 42.99% to 49.25%, indicating improved optimism regarding future sales expansion.
• Net profit margin estimates have increased from 22.06% to 24.55%, suggesting expectations of better profitability.
• Future P/E ratio forecasts have edged down from 47.34x to 46.71x, pointing to a marginal decrease in expected valuation multiples despite stronger fundamentals.
• The fair value estimate has remained unchanged at $9.08, indicating that overall value assessment is stable despite the changes in underlying metrics.