Update shared on 26 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.62%ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ consensus price target was revised downward to $29.32 as the Phase 3 failure of ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome modestly reduced pipeline value, though the impact is seen as limited given low expectations and resilience in the core business.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite the Phase 3 failure of ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS), which missed its primary endpoint, leading to lowered price targets based on reduced near-term pipeline value.
- Bullish analysts previously raised price targets banking on positive expectations for the ACP-101 trial, with support from key opinion leaders increasing confidence in a potential win ahead of the negative data readout.
- Several analysts note that the impact of the ACP-101 failure on overall valuation is relatively minor, as expectations for the asset were already low and Acadia’s remaining pipeline is seen as intact.
- Ongoing base business strength, particularly Daybue growth, sustains positive sentiment, though further acceleration is needed for upward revisions, and attention is turning to multiple upcoming readouts over the next 18 months.
- Increased competitive pressure is expected from Soleno’s VYKAT XR and Taysha’s TSHA-102, limiting pipeline contributions and challenging market share for Daybue.
What's in the News
- Phase 3 COMPASS PWS trial for intranasal carbetocin in Prader-Willi syndrome did not meet primary or secondary endpoints; safety profile consistent with prior studies.
- Interim results from the LOTUS study showed 71-90% of Rett syndrome patients prescribed DAYBUE reported at least one behavioral symptom improvement, with common improvements in non-verbal communication, alertness, and social interaction; common side effect was diarrhea.
- 2025 earnings guidance raised: total U.S. revenue guidance increased to $1.045–$1.095 billion; NUPLAZID net product sales guidance raised to $665–$690 million.
- Added to the Russell 2000 Growth-Defensive Index.
- Added to the Russell 2000 Defensive Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $30.11 to $29.32.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has fallen slightly from 11.6% per annum to 11.2% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has fallen slightly from 21.59% to 21.00%.
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