Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.84%Roblox's analyst price target has been modestly reduced by $1.24 to $146.02. Analysts cite near-term margin pressures from heightened investments and developer economics, despite stronger-than-expected revenue growth and an increasingly compelling advertising outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary highlights a mix of optimism and caution surrounding Roblox’s current outlook and investment trajectory. Despite strong growth metrics and increased analyst price targets, some reservations continue to temper the consensus.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to Roblox’s robust engagement growth, with strong momentum in user activity driving analyst upgrades to price targets.
- The launch of new advertising initiatives, including rewarded video and sponsored tiles, is seen as a significant future margin opportunity with the potential to monetize previously untapped engagement.
- Innovations in AI-powered search and game discovery are fueling viral hits and accelerating international expansion, enhancing user retention and monetization.
- Strategic investments in infrastructure and the creator economy are seen as cementing Roblox’s position as a leading development platform. These investments support a bullish long-term growth trajectory.
- Bearish analysts express concern over near-term margin pressures driven by higher infrastructure and developer compensation expenses. These factors may offset some of the strong bookings growth.
- Guidance and management commentary for 2026 have been described as conservative, raising questions about the sustainability of recent growth rates.
- Competitive dynamics may force Roblox to further increase the share of economics going to developers, which could impact future profitability.
- Some caution that recent pullbacks in the stock price reflect heightened market sensitivity to bookings growth trends and cautious outlooks, particularly amid sector-wide volatility.
What's in the News
- Roblox is set to report earnings before tomorrow's market open, with analysts expecting a consensus loss of 50 cents per share (Periodical).
- Lionsgate, Virtual Brand Group, and Super League have launched "The Strangers: Chapter 2" immersive survival experience across multiple Roblox games. This taps into the popular survival genre during the Halloween season (Key Developments).
- Mattel is expanding its collaboration with Roblox by releasing new titles inspired by top brands such as Monster High, Barbie, Hot Wheels, and UNO, bringing popular franchises into the Roblox platform (Key Developments).
- A lawsuit has been filed against Roblox over alleged negligence regarding child safety. The case centers on claims that the platform enabled grooming and exploitation due to insufficient safeguards (Key Developments).
- Roblox has launched new tools and platform improvements at its annual Developers Conference, including more realistic avatars, performance enhancements, and features to help creators grow and monetize their audiences (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Modestly reduced from $147.26 to $146.02.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.83% to 9.07%.
- Revenue Growth: Risen marginally from 34.76% to 35.72%.
- Net Profit Margin: Edged down from 2.39% to 2.29%.
- Future P/E: Decreased from 624.67x to 604.08x.
Disclaimer
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