APAC Expansion And Monetized Content Will Unlock Potential

Driven by robust user growth from successful new titles, accelerating platform innovation, and stronger revenue prospects supported by favorable regulatory developments and solid quarterly performance, analysts have raised Roblox’s consensus price target slightly from $142.32 to $143.95.

Analyst Commentary

• Hit game launches, particularly Grow a Garden, have driven unprecedented user engagement and bookings growth, significantly surpassing prior expectations and industry records.
• Bullish analysts cite accelerated platform growth fueled by improvements in developer incentives, infrastructure, and AI-driven content discovery, alongside meaningful expansion in game genres and shifting demographics.
• Improving monetization and advertising prospects, including ad inventory growth and pricing optimization, are expected to materially boost revenue streams in 2025 and beyond.
• Recent favorable app store rulings and regulatory shifts, such as the Epic/Apple decision, are seen as reducing platform costs and strengthening long-term margins for Roblox.
• Robust Q2 results, strong Q3 guidance, and a conservative but upwardly revised FY25 outlook have led most analysts to raise forecasts, while legal and community controversy (e.g., state litigation, creator bans) is viewed by bullish analysts as having minimal impact on engagement and fundamentals.

What's in the News

• Roblox faces a potential wave of lawsuits alleging the platform facilitated child sexual exploitation and grooming, with law firms preparing to file possibly over 1,000 cases within a year; approximately 60% of cases involve girls under 16 (Wired).
• The SEC concluded an investigation into Roblox in May 2025 after seven months, but the agency did not disclose the nature or findings of the case; both Roblox and SEC declined to comment (Bloomberg).
• JPMorgan raised its Roblox price target to $125 (from $120) and maintained an Overweight rating, based on stronger-than-expected user engagement and projections for Q2 bookings growth of 37% and FY25 growth of 30%, both above guidance.
• A growing number of game creators on Roblox are reportedly achieving million-dollar earnings, with high-value game acquisitions, such as "Blue Lock: Rivals" selling for over $3M after generating $5M/month, and Roblox purchasing a stake in "Grow a Garden," which set a record with 21M simultaneous players (Bloomberg).
• Roblox platform engagement continues to climb to record highs, with 32M concurrent users and significant commercial momentum for top games, reinforcing optimistic analyst estimates and ongoing developer success.

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for Roblox

• The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $142.32 to $143.95.
• The Future P/E for Roblox has fallen from 184.45x to 168.14x.
• The Net Profit Margin for Roblox has risen slightly from 8.93% to 9.33%.