PINS: Safer Platform Positioning Will Drive Future Advertising Demand And Outperformance

Analysts have nudged their Pinterest price target slightly lower to about $38 from roughly $38.50, citing recent Q3-driven target cuts on rising macro and tariff headwinds, even as they remain constructive on the platform's improving ad capabilities and long term growth profile.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Pinterest reflects a more nuanced stance, with both target cuts and supportive ratings as analysts recalibrate expectations following the Q3 print.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings even after trimming price targets, signaling continued confidence in Pinterest's ability to execute on its long term growth strategy despite near term volatility.
• Several notes highlight an improving ad product and user experience, which is seen as expanding the platform's appeal to a broader base of advertisers, particularly around key seasonal periods such as the holiday quarter.
• Pre Q3 commentary pointed to strengthening ad demand trends, with growth in Q3 viewed as better than Q2, supporting the view that Pinterest can outperform peers once macro and tariff pressures stabilize.
• Coverage initiations with positive ratings and targets in the high 40s to 50 range underscore the belief that advancements in machine learning driven ad technology and campaign management tools can drive upward estimate revisions over time.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts, while often still positive on the long term story, have reduced price targets into the mid to high 30s, reflecting increased concern around near term execution risk and softer growth into year end.
• The Q3 miss and subsequent Q4 guidance cut are attributed in part to tariff related weakness in key verticals like home furnishings, highlighting Pinterest's exposure to a relatively narrow set of large advertisers.
• Research notes point to elevated macro sensitivity and limited customer diversification, which could cap multiple expansion until the revenue base broadens and becomes less cyclical.
• Some firms caution that tougher comparisons and ongoing macro and tariff uncertainty mean upcoming guidance is unlikely to provide a strong re rating catalyst in the near term, keeping the stock more range bound despite a constructive longer term outlook.

What's in the News

• Pinterest CEO Bill Ready is highlighting efforts to position the platform as a safer alternative to other social media, including keeping accounts of users under 16 private with no option to make them public (The New York Times).
• The European Commission is preparing a "digital omnibus" package that would ease some GDPR restrictions and create new data processing exceptions for AI training, changes that could affect large ad driven platforms such as Pinterest alongside Meta, Alphabet, Reddit and Snap (Politico).
• Pinterest completed a share repurchase of 15,411,566 shares, about 2.28% of shares outstanding, totaling approximately $527.23 million under its November 2024 buyback authorization.
• For the fourth quarter of 2025, Pinterest issued guidance calling for revenue between $1,313 million and $1,338 million, implying year over year growth of 14% to 16%.
• Ongoing negotiations over TikTok's U.S. business, which is expected to be majority owned by American investors and rely on Oracle for data and algorithm control, continue to reshape the competitive landscape for social media platforms including Pinterest (multiple outlets).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has fallen slightly from $37.64 to $37.28 per share, reflecting modestly lower intrinsic value assumptions.
• The discount rate has edged down marginally from 8.26% to 8.24%, implying a slightly lower required return on equity.
• Revenue growth has risen very slightly from 13.96% to 13.97%, indicating a virtually unchanged top line growth outlook.
• Net profit margin is reported at 15.81%, suggesting a broadly stable long-term profitability profile.
• The future P/E has declined slightly from 33.56x to 33.23x, signaling a small compression in the forward valuation multiple applied to earnings.