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HUYA: Game Publishing Expansion Will Leave Shares Vulnerable To Future Multiple Compression

Mounting China Risk And High Costs Will Erode Streaming Profits

HUYA logo
HUYA
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 27 Aug 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 16%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
1.0%
7D
-2.6%

Analysts have raised their price target on HUYA by approximately 16 percent to reflect higher anticipated revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a more reasonable future earnings multiple that together support a stronger fair value estimate.

What's in the News

  • HUYA Inc. will co-publish the mobile version of popular social deduction game Goose Goose Duck in mainland China, with open beta scheduled for January 7, 2026 (Key Developments).
  • The title has already surpassed 10 million pre-registrations as of November 2025, supported by HUYA's streamer network and content-driven marketing (Key Developments).
  • The launch marks a major step in HUYA's expansion into game publishing, moving the company further along the gaming value chain (Key Developments).
  • HUYA plans to boost the game's visibility through streamer campaigns, tournaments, and other content and operational initiatives to deepen user engagement (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate increased from 2.40 to 2.80 per share, implying a roughly 16 percent upward revision to intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate edged up slightly from about 9.73 percent to 9.75 percent, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue Growth Assumption was raised significantly from roughly 2.2 percent to about 4.9 percent, signaling a more optimistic view on top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin increased meaningfully from approximately 1.3 percent to about 3.1 percent, indicating expectations for stronger operating leverage and cost efficiency.
  • Future P/E Multiple was reduced substantially from about 56.0x to roughly 29.0x, suggesting a more conservative valuation framework despite improved fundamentals.

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