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GRND: Share Repurchases And Canceled Takeover Will Support Higher Future Price

Emerging Markets And AI Will Unlock Future Opportunities

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GRND
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 05 May 2025

Update shared on 09 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-22.7%
7D
-3.2%

Narrative Update

Analysts have modestly refined their assumptions on Grindr, resulting in a largely unchanged fair value estimate of $21.75 per share. A slightly lower discount rate and adjusted forward valuation expectations largely offset each other in their updated model.

What's in the News

  • Proposed $3.5 billion take-private of Grindr by a shareholder group, backed by a $1.0 billion term loan and up to $100 million of new equity, was canceled on November 26, 2025, after the board's special committee raised financing concerns (company filing)
  • The same shareholder group, including Tiga Investments and major shareholders James Fu Bin Lu and Raymond Zage, had earlier submitted a nonbinding proposal on October 24, 2025, to acquire Grindr for $3.5 billion, targeting a first quarter 2026 closing (company filing)
  • From July 1 to September 30, 2025, Grindr repurchased 9.1 million shares for $156.4 million, completing a total buyback of 25.1 million shares for $450.5 million under its March 5, 2025, authorization (company filing)
  • Grindr reaffirmed full year 2025 guidance, maintaining its outlook for revenue growth of 26% or greater (company guidance)
  • The board appointed John F. North as Chief Financial Officer effective October 1, 2025, with outgoing CFO Vanna Krantz remaining as senior advisor through March 31, 2026 (company filing)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at $21.75 per share, indicating no net impact from model refinements.
  • Discount Rate has fallen slightly from approximately 8.53% to 8.52%, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at about 19.74% in the long term, signaling stable growth expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin is effectively unchanged at roughly 26.13%, suggesting no material shift in long run profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E has edged down slightly from about 22.29x to 22.29x, indicating a marginally lower valuation multiple applied in the model.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.