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WB: Higher Discount Rate Will Likely Pressure Future Earnings Multiple

China's Regulatory Scrutiny And Market Shifts Will Undermine Value

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WB
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 10 May 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

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1Y
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7D
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Narrative Update on Weibo

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Weibo, citing a shift to slightly positive revenue growth and a firmer long term earnings multiple, despite a higher discount rate and some pressure on profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Weibo's board has scheduled a meeting for November 18, 2025, to review and approve unaudited Q3 2025 financial results for the quarter ended September 30 and address other corporate matters (company filing)
  • Weibo has been added to the S&P Global BMI Index under its Hong Kong listing SEHK:9898, which may increase visibility and passive fund inflows (index provider announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at 8.6, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value per share in this update.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly from 10.36 percent to 11.06 percent, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
  • Revenue growth has improved significantly from approximately minus 0.50 percent to plus 0.04 percent, shifting expectations from modest contraction to slightly positive growth.
  • The net profit margin has declined moderately from 21.84 percent to 19.26 percent, suggesting some pressure on profitability despite positive revenue expectations.
  • The future P/E has increased slightly from 7.56x to 7.79x, pointing to a marginally higher earnings multiple applied to Weibo's forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.