Update shared on 23 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 9.62%Analysts have lowered their price target for Trade Desk by approximately $6.64 to $62.33. They cite near-term headwinds and a slightly softer outlook on growth and margins. However, fundamentals and longer-term drivers remain intact.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research offers a nuanced view of Trade Desk's prospects, with both optimistic and cautious tones reflected in recent price target movements and commentary.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that Trade Desk delivered a strong quarter, beating expectations and raising guidance. This suggests core growth could return to the 20% year-over-year range by year-end.
- There is confidence that fundamentals remain robust. New platform initiatives like Kokai are showing increasing adoption and are expected to drive improved advertiser outcomes.
- Analysts highlight limited downside risk for shares at current valuations. They describe the forward setup as attractive with forward estimates considered "derisked."
- Bullish perspectives emphasize the company's ability to execute well even amid a challenging advertising environment. There has been strong execution against tough year-over-year comparisons and signs of incremental improvement in ad demand.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts express concern about near-term headwinds, including intensifying competition from larger players and potential regulatory impacts. These factors may pressure the company’s operating environment and growth trajectory.
- Valuation concerns linger after recent volatility. One major firm now views the stock as a "show me" story due to management changes and anticipated topline deceleration for next year.
- Some caution that incremental improvements, while positive, may be insufficient to dispel worries about slowing growth rates and competitive threats in the broader digital ad ecosystem.
- Persistent margin pressures and a slightly softer near-term outlook have led to a series of downward price target revisions by several research houses.
What's in the News
- OpenAI is hiring for a new Growth Paid Marketing Platform Engineer to build out in-house ad tools for ChatGPT, signaling a move toward its own paid marketing platform. This development is being closely watched by Trade Desk and industry peers (ADWEEK).
- Trade Desk provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of at least $840 million.
- The company has repurchased 6,229,482 shares between July and October 2025, completing 5.88% of its buyback plan with a cumulative spend of $1.91 billion. The buyback plan was recently expanded by $500 million.
- A major upgrade called Audience Unlimited was announced, introducing new AI-powered tools to improve digital advertising campaign targeting and optimize costs.
- Trade Desk and DIRECTV are collaborating on a customized version of Ventura TV OS, aiming to provide an integrated streaming platform for third-party manufacturers and partners.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $68.97 to $62.33, reflecting a decrease of approximately 9.6%.
- Discount Rate: Remained virtually unchanged at 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth: The projected growth rate has edged down slightly from 16.24% to 15.84%.
- Net Profit Margin: Margins dipped marginally, moving from 18.91% to 18.78%.
- Future P/E: The forward price-to-earnings multiple has decreased significantly from 50.36x to 41.85x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.