AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for TTD

Analysts have lowered their price targets for Trade Desk. Several have cited increased competition, macroeconomic uncertainty, and management changes as key factors driving a more cautious outlook and target reductions in the range of $45 to $60.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst coverage of Trade Desk reflects a broad mix of optimism about certain company strengths and persistent concerns about valuation, macro environment, and execution. Guidance changes, price target reductions, and rating downgrades highlight a divided outlook among the research community.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to the successful ramp of new offerings such as Audience Unlimited, which leverages AI and exclusive data partnerships to differentiate Trade Desk in a crowded digital advertising landscape.
• Some anticipate that Q3 results will be in line with guidance, with no significant deterioration in the macroeconomic backdrop following previous volatility earlier in the year.
• Progress on Kokai adoption remains on track toward full implementation by year end, signaling ongoing execution on key product initiatives.
• An increase in long term price targets by certain analysts is underpinned by expected improvements in international tariffs and assumptions that Trade Desk can exceed its near term guidance, supporting growth and valuation expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

• Several analysts have noted increased near term headwinds, including intensifying competition from major platforms and potential regulatory risks related to shifts in advertising policy.
• Topline deceleration is a concern for the coming year, with doubts about Trade Desk's ability to restore above market growth rates amid evolving industry trends and management transitions.
• Bearish analysts argue that past valuation premiums are less justified, given moderate revenue growth and the need for Trade Desk to deliver consistent GAAP earnings and free cash flow.
• The company's ability to capture upside from strategic initiatives is seen as uncertain, especially in a morphing macro environment, prompting a "show me" stance from some in the analyst community.

What's in the News

• OpenAI is building in-house advertising infrastructure for ChatGPT, signaling growing competition for digital ad platforms such as Trade Desk (ADWEEK).
• Walmart is no longer exclusively tied to Trade Desk's ad technology, raising concerns about the retention of a major client as Walmart explores other partnerships (The Information).
• The Trade Desk announced Audience Unlimited, a significant upgrade to its third-party data marketplace. This upgrade leverages AI for campaign optimization and provides new options for advertisers.
• The company appointed Alex Kayyal as Chief Financial Officer. He brings experience from Salesforce and Lightspeed Venture Partners to drive financial strategy.
• The Trade Desk provided Q3 2025 earnings guidance, forecasting at least $717 million in revenue for the period.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at $69.53 per share, indicating consistent analyst expectations for intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate is stable at 6.78%, reflecting no change in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth projection has declined slightly, from 16.46% to 16.45%, suggesting only a minimal adjustment to topline expectations.
• Net Profit Margin estimate has risen modestly from 18.88% to 18.92%, pointing to a slight improvement in anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E ratio forecast has decreased fractionally, from 50.33x to 50.22x, indicating a marginally lower valuation multiple expected for upcoming years.