TBLA: Future Margin Expansion Will Drive Upside As Growth Visibility Improves

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Taboola.com to approximately $4.80 from about $4.50, citing slightly stronger long term growth and margin assumptions, even as some Street research continues to emphasize the need for clearer double digit topline potential.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the modest price target increase reflects improving confidence in Taboola's long term growth profile and margin expansion, even if near term expectations remain restrained.

Bullish Takeaways

• Upward revisions to the price target suggest growing conviction that Taboola can gradually improve profitability and scale its platform over time.
• Expectations for mid single digit topline growth in 2025 and 2026 provide a baseline that, if exceeded, could justify further multiple expansion.
• Incremental visibility into operating leverage and margin improvement supports a more constructive view on long term value creation.
• The absence of a major negative thesis or structural concern leaves room for sentiment to improve if execution outperforms current forecasts.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts emphasize that current forecasts for mid single digit revenue growth are not sufficient to support a more aggressive valuation re rating.
• Lack of clear line of sight to sustainable double digit topline growth limits enthusiasm around upside scenarios for the shares.
• Limited visibility into near term catalysts raises the risk that the stock could remain range bound as investors wait for evidence of faster growth.
• The decision by some firms to withhold a formal price target underscores lingering uncertainty around the pace and durability of Taboola's growth trajectory.

What's in the News

• Announced a new partnership with LG Ad Solutions to launch Performance Enhancer, connecting premium CTV exposure with measurable digital outcomes across global channels. (Client announcement)
• BuzzFeed Asia selected Taboola's DeeperDive Gen AI answer engine for launch in Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, aiming to boost engagement and create new on site monetization opportunities. (Client announcement)
• Raised full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $1.914 billion to $1.932 billion, indicating increased confidence in projected growth. (Corporate guidance raised)
• Provided fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of $532 million to $542 million, outlining near term expectations for topline performance. (Corporate guidance)
• Repurchased over 10 million shares in the latest tranche, bringing total buybacks under the May 2023 authorization to about 92 million shares, or nearly 28% of shares outstanding. (Buyback update)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: increased slightly from $4.50 to $4.80, reflecting modestly higher expectations for long term value.
• Discount Rate: edged down marginally from 8.61% to 8.61%, suggesting a slightly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: ticked up from approximately 6.11% to about 6.18%, indicating a minor uplift in long term growth assumptions.
• Net Profit Margin: improved modestly from roughly 1.63% to around 1.65%, signaling a small upgrade to margin expectations.
• Future P/E: moved up from about 36.3x to roughly 38.4x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.