Update shared on19 Aug 2025
Analysts maintained Sirius XM Holdings’ price target at $23.64 as improved Q2 results and solid free cash flow were offset by concerns over future guidance, sluggish streaming-only subscriber growth, and persistent ad revenue weakness.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts see minimal impact on operating results or share price from a potential Howard Stern departure, with SiriusXM retaining exclusive rights and introducing other prominent audio personalities.
- Post Q2 results, free cash flow is improving as SiriusXM enters a satellite consolidation phase, contributing to moderate price target increases by some analysts.
- Despite delivering Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow above expectations, bearish analysts note SiriusXM did not raise 2025 guidance, reflecting caution regarding future performance.
- Ongoing challenges are highlighted in streaming-only subscriber growth and lackluster advertising traction, creating headwinds for overall business momentum.
- Adjustments to models include stronger-than-expected net subscriber additions in Q2, continued ad revenue pressures, and potential benefits modeled from spectrum monetization.
What's in the News
- The Howard Stern Show is set to be canceled on Sirius XM after a 20-year run; the company is unlikely to meet Stern’s contract demands, but may seek a deal for his show library (The Sun, 2025-08-06).
- Sirius XM reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance with an expected total revenue of approximately $8.5 billion (Key Developments, 2025-07-31).
- The company repurchased 2.1 million shares for $45.15 million between April and June 2025, marking significant progress in its long-running buyback program (Key Developments, 2025-07-31).
- SiriusXM launched "SiriusXM Play," a low-cost, ad-supported subscription package to attract new listeners, and plans to roll out additional advertising capabilities in the coming months (Key Developments, 2025-07-15).
- Sirius XM Holdings has been added to the Russell 2500, Russell 2500 Value, and Russell 2500 Value Benchmark indexes (Key Developments, 2025-06-28 & 2025-06-30).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Sirius XM Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $23.64.
- The Future P/E for Sirius XM Holdings has significantly risen from 7.63x to 9.25x.
- The Discount Rate for Sirius XM Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.07% to 8.91%.
Disclaimer
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