Update shared on22 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 6.99%Despite weaker near-term revenue growth and EBITDA guidance due to DSP partner headwinds, analysts have modestly increased PubMatic’s fair value to $11.17 on optimism over long-term opportunities, including share gains from Google’s antitrust ruling and PubMatic’s financial resilience.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts see PubMatic as a strong AdTech player with resilience despite recent operating challenges, citing its #3 SSP position and potential to overcome current DSP-related issues.
- Multiple bearish analysts flagged disappointing Q3 (and beyond) guidance, with revenue and EBITDA projections falling notably below consensus due to continued headwinds from key DSP partners.
- Near-term growth catalysts are seen as limited, despite PubMatic’s lack of debt, ongoing share repurchases, solid free cash flow, and upside contributions from CTV and emerging revenue streams.
- The antitrust ruling against Google is viewed by bullish analysts as a significant opportunity for PubMatic to gain share, particularly from anticipated structural changes to publisher tools and ad auctions in 2026.
- Persistent DSP partner challenges have derailed optimism for a H2 2025 recovery, leading bearish analysts to lower full-year AEBITDA estimates and price targets to reflect a more cautious outlook.
What's in the News
- PubMatic faces multiple class action lawsuits alleging the company and top executives made false or misleading statements, particularly regarding the loss of a major DSP buyer, leading to a noted reduction in ad spend and revenue.
- The revelation of reduced ad spend from a top DSP partner caused PubMatic’s stock to fall over 21% following its Q2 2025 earnings report.
- PubMatic launched an AI-powered Live Sports Marketplace in partnership with FanServ, enabling real-time, granular targeting of premium live sports advertising inventory and further expanding access to major sports content and publishers.
- The company completed a substantial share buyback, repurchasing 3.5 million shares in Q2 2025 for $40 million, completing the buyback program with a total of 12.17 million shares repurchased for $178.22 million.
- PubMatic was added to several Russell value and defensive indices and dropped from several Russell growth benchmarks, reflecting a shift in index classification.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for PubMatic
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $10.44 to $11.17.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for PubMatic has significantly fallen from 3.8% per annum to 1.1% per annum.
- The Future P/E for PubMatic has significantly risen from 15.75x to 17.96x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.